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CHAPTER XXII

POPULATION AND LABOR, 1860-1915

I. POPULATION

A. Growth of Population, 1790-19101

The growth of the population of the United States since the taking of the first census is here shown. It should be noted that while there is a steady increase in numbers the rate of increase is falling off.

Continental United States. - The population of continental United States is 91,972,266. Compared with the population of 75,994,575 in 1900, this represents an increase during the past decade of 15,977,691, or 21 per cent. The rate of increase was slightly greater than during the preceding decade, 1890-1900, when it was 20.7 per cent.

The table following shows the population of continental United States as enumerated at each census from 1790 to 1910, inclusive, together with the increase and per cent of increase during each decade, and also adjusted percentages of increase explained in the paragraphs below [see table on page 778].

B. The Increase of Population, 1900 2

Some of the more important results of an analysis of the population statistics of the census of 1900 are here given. Professor Willcox is professor of statistics at Cornell University.

The main results of the discussion of increase of population in this bulletin may be stated briefly as follows:

5. Only one country, Argentina, has shown by the most recent figures a more rapid rate of growth.

6. The present rate of growth in continental United States is probably double the average rate of Europe, is nearly double that of Canada, exceeds by one-sixth that of Mexico, and by one-tenth that of Australia. . .

1 Thirteenth Census of the United States. Taken in the Year 1910. Volume I: Population (Washington, 1913), 24.

2 A Discussion of Increase of Population. By W. F. Willcox. United States Census Office, Bulletin 4 (Washington, 1903), 5-6.

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8. Among the 5 main divisions of continental United States the highest rate of increase is found in the Western division and the lowest in the North Central. . . .

10. In 1790 the northern and the southern groups of states had almost equal populations, but through the following hundred years with an insignificant and probably only apparent exception in one decade - the North steadily gained, until in 1890 its population was almost double that of the South.

II. In the decade of 1890 to 1900, on the contrary, for the first time in our national history the Southern states increased faster than the Northern, if allowance be made for the undercount in 1870. . . .

15. The region east of the Mississippi increased more rapidly from 1890 to 1900 than from 1880 to 1890, while that west of the Mississippi increased in the later decade not much more than half as fast as in the earlier.

1 The evidence is clear that there was a marked deficiency in the enumeration of the population in the southern states in 1870, resulting in an understatement of the increase from 1860 to 1870 and an overstatement of the increase from 1870 to 1880. There is no means of ascertaining accurately the extent of the deficiency, but an approximate estimate of the true population in 1870 was made in the census report of 1890 (Population, Part I, pp. xi, xii, and xvi) by which the population in 1870 was placed at 39,818,449 instead of 38,558,371. Using this figure the increase of 1870 over 1860 would be 8,375,128, or 26.6 per cent, and the increase of 1880 over 1870, 10,337,334, or 26 per cent.

16. The increased growth of the East and the decreased growth of the West may both be connected with a probable decline in the current of westward migration. . . .

20. . . . The growth of population, an important index of prosperity, was more evenly distributed over the country between 1890 and 1900 than between 1880 and 1890.

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23. The most noteworthy result of the entire discussion is the cumulative evidence of the rapid approach to equality in the rates of increase of various parts of the United States. This appears whether North be compared with South, East with West, or city with country.

C. The Westward Movement, 18801

The year 1880 has usually been said to have marked the passing of the American frontier. By this is meant that there was now practically continuous settlement from the Atlantic to the Pacific oceans, though it was still very sparse in the western states. The effect of the railroads in promoting western settlement is indicated in the following extract.

In tracing the history of the settlement of our country we are now brought down to the latest census, that of 1880. During the decade just past Colorado has been added to the sisterhood of states. The first point that strikes us in examining the map showing the areas of settlements at this date, as compared with previous ones, is the great extent of territory which has been brought under occupation during the past ten years. Not only has settlement spread westward over large areas in Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Texas, thus moving the frontier line of the main body of settlement westward many scores of miles, but the isolated settlements of the Cordilleran region and of the Pacific coast show enormous accessions of occupied territory.

The most notable change in New England and the middle states, including Ohio and Indiana, has been the increase in density of population and the migration to cities, with the consequent increase of the urban population. . . . Throughout the southern states there is to be noted, not only a general increase in the density of population and a decrease of unsettled areas, but a greater approach to uniformity of settlement throughout the whole region. . . . In Wisconsin the unsettled area is rapidly decreasing as railroads stretch their arms out. over the vacant tracts. In Minnesota and in eastern Dakota the building of railroads, and the development of the latent capabilities of this region in the cultivation of wheat, have caused a rapid flow of settle

1 Statistics of the Population of the United States at the Tenth Census. (Washington, 1883), I, xix-xx.

ment, and now the frontier line of population, instead of returning to Lake Michigan, as it did ten years ago, meets the boundary line of the British possessions west of the 97th meridian. The settlements in Kansas and Nebraska have made great strides over the plains, reaching at several points the boundary of the humid region, so that their westward extension beyond this point is to be governed hereafter by the supply of water in the streams. . . . Texas also has made great strides, both in the extension of the frontier line of settlement and in the increase in the density of population, due both to the building of railroads and to the development of the cattle, sheep, and agricultural interests. The heavy population in the prairie portions of the state is explained by the railroads which now traverse them. . . .

Of all the states and territories of the Cordilleran region Colorado has made the greatest stride during the decade. From a narrow strip of settlement, extending along the immediate base of the Rocky mountains, the belt has increased so that it comprises the whole mountain region, beside a great extension upon the plains. This increase is the result of the discovery of very extensive and very rich mineral deposits about Leadville, producing a "stampede" second only to that of '49 and '50 to California. . . .

The length of the frontier line in 1880 is 3,337 miles. The area included between the frontier line, the Atlantic and the Gulf coast, and the northern boundary is 1,398,945 square miles. .

The population is 50,155,783, and the average density of settlement is 32 to the square mile.

D. Growth of Cities, 1790-18801

The urban concentration of the population began on a considerable scale about the middle of the nineteenth century, and has proceeded hand in hand with the development of manufactures and of improved transportation facilities.

The growth of cities in the United States has formed a marked feature of our social and industrial history. The following table shows the number of cities of 8,000 inhabitants and over at each census, beginning in 1790, and the aggregate urban population of the country in comparison with the total population at corresponding periods:

From this table it appears that, speaking roundly, in 1790 onethirtieth of the population of the country was found in cities; in 1800, one-twenty-fifth; in 1810, and again in 1820, one-twentieth; in 1830,

1 Report on the Manufactures of the United States at the Tenth Census. (Washington, 1883), II, xxii.

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one-fifteenth; in 1840, one-twelfth; in 1850, one-eighth; in 1860, one-sixth; in 1870, one-fifth; and in 1880, two-ninths.

It would be difficult to say in what proportion the growth of the cities of the country, as a body, has been due to commercial, and in what proportion to industrial forces, even had we official statistics. covering our internal traffic, which we have not; but I conceive that no one will hesitate to assent to the proposition that the growth of the cities of the United States since 1850 has been due in far greater measure to their development as manufacturing centers than to their increased business as centers for the distribution of commercial products. . . .

E. Urban Concentration, 1880-19101

One of the most striking phenomena in the movement of the population during the last half century has been the increase in the urban and the relative decrease in the rural population. This has been made possible by improvements in agriculture which have set free a large part of those formerly needed on the farms and on the other hand by the growth of manufactures which have absorbed this available labor.

The Census Bureau classifies as urban population that residing in cities and other incorporated places of 2,500 inhabitants or more, including New England towns of that population.

Proportion urban and rural.— The proportion of the total population living in urban and in rural territory at the censuses of 1910, 1 Thirteenth Census of the United States, Taken in the Year 1910. Volume I: Population (Washington, 1913), 53, 60.

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