REPORT OF THE CHIEF OF THE BUREAU OF STATISTICS.

U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE,

BUREAU OF STATISTICS,

Washington, D. C., September, 12, 1911.

SIR: I have the honor to submit herewith the report of the Bureau of Statistics for the fiscal year ended June 30, 1911.

Very respectfully,

INTRODUCTION.

The organization of the Bureau of Statistics during the year ended June 30, 1911, and the character of the work accomplished were the same as in the immediately preceding years, as fully described in the annual reports of this bureau. During the year, however, certain lines of work have been accomplished not varying in character but somewhat broader in scope than heretofore, as set forth in the statements which follow of work accomplished by the bureau and the different divisions thereof.

CROP-REPORTING SYSTEM.

An important feature was added to the crop-reporting system of the bureau, in accordance with the plan outlined in our report for last year, to wit, the quantitative interpretation of the figures indicating the condition of growing crops for which quantitative estimates are made at the close of each year. The significance of the condition figures from month to month of the growing crops involved have been shown by their translation or interpretation into figures indicating the yield of such crops as promised by the condition reports.

Before such official interpretations were made, the condition figures were subject, in past years, to many differing interpretations both by private and commercial interests, some of which were undoubtedly made for speculative purposes, the idea being to influence improperly the course of prices. Since the official interpretations have been made, during the past year, the private interpretations have practically ceased, those emanating from this bureau being accepted in practically all quarters as the fairest and most authentic figures possible to be based on the condition reports.

It should be said, in passing, that of the leading crops, for which quantitative interpretations of condition figures are made, all are

included except the cotton crop. In the case of cotton it is impossible to interpret the condition figures because of the fact that an important element, necessary to such interpretation, is lacking, to wit, the abandoned acreage of cotton. This can not be ascertained until the close of the season, and it has been found impracticable in its absence to translate, quantitatively, the figures showing the condition of the growing crop.

During the past year the chief of bureau was designated by the Honorable Secretary of State as a delegate to the General Assembly of the International Institute of Agriculture, which convened at Rome, Italy, on May 14, 1911. The results of the General Assembly are set forth in the report to the Department of State by the American delegates, and it is therefore believed unnecessary to go into this matter at this time.

The chief of bureau was directed by the Secretary of Agriculture to visit various countries in Europe at the conclusion of his duties at Rome for the purpose of securing information which it was believed. would be of value to our crop-reporting service.

The data gathered in the few countries visited before returning to Washington were of a negative character, but are fully as valuable as though they had been positive in their nature, inasmuch as they show, beyond doubt, that the crop-reporting systems of the European countries visited contained no features or covered no range better or broader than embraced by our system; in fact, it was found that, as far as the investigation extended, the system prevailing in the Department of Agriculture of the United States, which has been in operation many years, is far in advance of that of any other country.

ORGANIZATION.

During and at the close of the fiscal year the bureau consisted of three principal divisions, in Washington, in addition to the offices of the Statistician and of the chief clerk, to wit, the Division of Domestic Crop Reports, the Division of Production and Distribution, and the Division of Research and Reference (formerly known as the Editorial Division and Library).

The service outside of Washington embraces a State statistical agent in each State, and a force of special field agents, the number of State statistical agents at the close of the year having been 46, and the special field agents numbering 18. Since the close of the fiscal year a small addition to the appropriation for the bureau by the last Congress has enabled the appointment of one additional State statistical agent in Arizona, and two additional special field agents. The latter two appointments have enabled us to make a new subdivision of territory in certain sections where that covered by special field agents during the past fiscal year was too large for them to report upon adequately.

As to the organization of the work outside of Washington it may be said, briefly, that each State statistical agent maintains a corps of voluntary unpaid correspondents throughout his State, who report to him monthly regarding the acreage, condition, or yield of crops dealt with, or the number, status, and value of farm animals. Based on the reports received by him and on his own personal knowledge and observation gained through a limited amount of travel (limited because available funds will not permit extensive travel) he renders

a report to this bureau at the close of each month upon the topics handled during each of the specific months to which his reports relate. These State statistical agents are paid small salaries, and are only required to devote so much of their time to the work as is necessary for its proper performance. Their duties demand and they ought to be paid larger compensation.

The special field agents are assigned to two or more States each and devote their entire time to the work. They travel within and throughout their respective territories gathering information from all dependable sources. They interview country merchants, implement dealers, country bankers, farmers, and all others in touch with or likely to have a knowledge of agricultural conditions. They are required to visit the growing crops in the fields and make personal inspection of their appearance and condition. Each of them has correspondents located in various sections of his territory who report to him at the close of each month from those parts of his district which he is unable to visit. Based on the knowledge thus gained, through personal inspection and interviews, and on the information derived from their correspondents, the special field agents make reports monthly to the bureau, similar to the reports made by the State statistical agents.

Reports both of the State statistical agents and special field agents regarding what are known as "speculative" crops (corn, wheat, oats, and cotton) are sent direct to the Secretary of Agriculture and are held by him in a locked receptacle until the morning of the day on which each crop report is to be issued, when they are delivered to the Statistician for tabulation and computation.

During the past year the work of inspecting and instructing the forces of State statistical agents and special field agents of the bureau has been carried on vigorously, with great benefit to the service. The assistant statistician of the bureau has been placed in charge of this branch of the work; his report is given further on.

In addition to the sources of information enumerated above, the bureau has various lists of correspondents who report direct to Washington each month, the information they furnish being along lines identical with those covered by the State statistical agents and the special field agents. These correspondents are located in every agricultural county and township in the United States. They are divided into various classes, the reports of each class being tabulated separately and independently from every other class in the Division of Domestic Crop Reports, a report of the work of which during the past fiscal year follows.

The methods and processes pursued in tabulating, computing, and arriving at the figures covered by the monthly crop reports of the bureau have been so fully described, in such great detail, both in reports of this bureau heretofore made and in the public press, that it is considered wholly unnecessary to set forth here what has been so frequently and elaborately explained.

An appreciable portion of the time of employees of the bureau is consumed in the preparation of replies to letters of inquiry regarding agricultural statistics as well as other statistics bearing upon agriculture. These inquiries are received from all classes of citizens, including professors in agricultural colleges, State officials, depart

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mental officials, Senators, Representatives, and others. As indicating the volume of this class of work it may be said that the records show 7,974 letters to have been press copied and mailed during the past fiscal year.

The bureau also does considerable work along statistical lines in the way of computing and tabulating for other bureaus and offices of the Department of Agriculture. A record has been kept of the time devoted to such work and the cost of the same. For the past fiscal year the value of services of clerks while employed upon work for other bureaus and divisions of the Department of Agriculture amounted to $3,886.

NEW FEATURES IN CROP REPORTER.

In addition to the usual monthly crop reports, which appear regularly in the Crop Reporter, several new features have been added. In the August, 1910, Crop Reporter was published statistics of the values of lands, by States, upon which corn and wheat are grown, and the average size of fields. This report shows that the average value of wheat-growing lands in the United States in 1909 was $44 per acre, being lowest in Alabama ($16) and highest in Illinois ($84). Corn lands averaged in value $48 per acre, being lowest in Florida ($11) and highest in Illinois ($100) per acre. The average size of fields varies considerably in the different States. The average cornfield is 31 acres in size, but only 3 acres in Vermont and Rhode Island and 55 acres in Nebraska. The average wheat field is 54 acres, but only 3 acres in Vermont, whereas it is 169 acres in California.

A report upon the average wages paid to farm labor will be made annually hereafter. A statement appeared in the March, 1911, Crop Reporter of the wages paid in 1910. The average monthly wage for farm labor, without board, was found to be about $27.50, as compared with $22.14 in 1902, when the last preceding investigation was made; in the eight years there was an increase of about 24.2 per cent. The result of the investigation upon the cost of producing corn in 1909 was published in the April, 1911, Crop Reporter; the results for wheat in the May number, and the results for oats in the June number. This investigation made it evident that the cost of producing crops varies widely in different sections of the United States. The average cost per bushel of producing corn in the United States was found to be 37.9 cents (including rent charge), varying by States, from 30 cents in Iowa and South Dakota to 72 cents per bushel in Maine; the average cost of producing wheat in the United States, 66 cents per bushel (including rental charge), varying by States from 44 cents in Montana to 96 cents per bushel in South Carolina; the average cost of producing outs in the United States, 31 cents per bushel (including rental charge), varying by States from 23 cents per bushel in Montana to 56 cents in Connecticut. This line of investigation concerning the cost of producing crops will probably be continued.

In the Crop Reporter for November, 1910, appeared a summary of the first investigation of the amount of damage done to each important crop in 1909, and the relative extent of each cause of damage. A similar inquiry has been made for 1910, and will probably be continued hereafter. The results of this first inquiry show that, of the

total damage done to field crops in 1909, about 81.8 per cent is attributed to unfavorable climatic conditions, 4.8 per cent to plant diseases, 7.9 per cent to insect pests, 1 per cent to animal pests, 1 per cent to defective seed, and 3.5 per cent to unknown causes.

A new feature has been added to the data given in the Crop Reporter, in a monthly presentation of average temperature and precipitation by States. The figures are furnished by the Weather Bureau of the Department of Agriculture.

Of other special reports, or results of investigations, appearing in the Crop Reporter during the past year may be mentioned the following:

"Stocks of potatoes on January 1," appearing in January, 1911; "Monthly marketings of principal grain crops," February, 1911; "Rice varieties in the United States," October, 1910; "Average farm prices of horses and cattle, 1867-1911, in the United States, by

Chart showing relative production per acre and per capita in the United States of ten crops (wheat, corn, oats, barley, buckwheat, rye, potatoes, hay, tobacco, and cotton) combined. 100 represents the average for the 43 years 1866-1908.

ages," February, 1911; "Index figures of yield per acre, per capita production, and December 1 farm price of 10 products combined, yearly since 1866" (see chart), March, 1911; "Production of important crops in the leading five States, 1906-1910," March, 1911; "Cotton production comparisons," April, 1911; "Value of wealth produced on farms annually," May, 1911.

WORK OF THE ASSISTANT STATISTICIAN.

The assistant statistician is particularly concerned with the inspection, supervision, and instruction of the field service of the bureau. This is a vitally necessary work, because upon the efficiency of these agents, as reflected in their reports to the bureau, depends largely the accuracy of the Government crop reports.

For several years it has been impossible to give proper supervision to the field force because of the absence, first, of the Statistician and later of the Associate Statistician on foreign duty.