Alliance Formation in Civil WarsSome of the most brutal and long-lasting civil wars of our time involve the rapid formation and disintegration of alliances among warring groups, as well as fractionalization within them. It would be natural to suppose that warring groups form alliances based on shared identity considerations - such as Christian groups allying with Christian groups - but this is not what we see. Two groups that identify themselves as bitter foes one day, on the basis of some identity narrative, might be allies the next day and vice versa. Nor is any group, however homogeneous, safe from internal fractionalization. Rather, looking closely at the civil wars in Afghanistan and Bosnia and testing against the broader universe of fifty-three cases of multiparty civil wars, Fotini Christia finds that the relative power distribution between and within various warring groups is the primary driving force behind alliance formation, alliance changes, group splits and internal group takeovers. |
Contents
1 | |
10 | |
19 | |
A Theory of Warring Group Alliances and Fractionalization | 32 |
The Afghan IntraMujahedin War 19921998 | 57 |
The Afghan CommunistMujahedin War 19781989 | 101 |
The Theory at the Commander Level in Afghanistan 19781998 | 126 |
The Bosnian Civil War 19921995 | 149 |
Quantitative Testing on the Universe of Cases of Multiparty | 213 |
Note on Sources | 247 |
Appendix | 253 |
A1 Comparison of Means for Available Covariates | 254 |
A5 Commander Tribe Kandahar and Nangarhar Only | 260 |
A8 Classification of Intergroup Manpower by Conflict | 271 |
References | 307 |
339 | |
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Common terms and phrases
Abdul accessed April 20 adds Afghan civil war Afghanistan Akbari alliance behavior alliance changes alliance choices alliance formation Alliance Portfolio alliance shifts allies Anbar Army balance Balkh battlefield book’s Bosnia and Herzegovina Central Bosnia chapter Chetniks cleavages commanders communist conflict context Croat-Muslim Croatian Croats and Muslims dataset Dostum dynamics elites ethnic fight fighters fighting figures first forces group fractionalization Hazarajat Hazaras Hegemonic Hekmatyar Herzegovina Hizb-i-Islami Hizb-i-Wahdat Ibid ideological influence Interview held intra-mujahedin Iraq Islamic Jamiat-i-Islami Jihad Junbish-i-Milli Kabul Kandahar leader leadership Malik Massoud Mazari military militias minimum winning coalition Mostar mujahedin multiparty civil wars multiparty conflicts Muslims Nangarhar narratives National officers onset Oslobodenje Pakistan Partisans Pashtuns PDPA percent political province relative power rivalries Sarajevo Serbs shared identity side significant Specifically split subgroups Tajiks takeover Taliban territorial theory tribal Ustashe Uzbeks variable victory war’s warring actors warring groups wartime Yes Yes ZNOR