REPORT OF THE DIRECTOR OF THE UNITED STATES

GEOLOGICAL SURVEY.

GEORGE OTIS SMITH, Director.

The appropriations for the work of the United States Geological Survey for the fiscal year 1915-16 comprised items amounting to $1,570,520. The plan of operations was approved by the Secretary of the Interior, and detailed statements of the work performed are given in this report.

SPECIAL FEATURES.

ECONOMY IN SCIENCE.

The increased extent to which the large industrial corporations of the country now support their own departments of scientific research is a gratifying development of the times. Science is regarded as a necessity rather than a luxury. And this coming of science into its own as a large factor in the industrial life of the Nation is necessarily followed by a certain reaction of business upon science. Never before, perhaps, has the demand been so keen for research that is no less than ever scientific in spirit and in method. but that has a definite purpose and yields definite results. The idea of making science useful is not new, but the utility of science has become more universally the test of its value.

In the scientific work done under the Federal Government this demand for results is abundantly justified by the public need. If the strongest corporations are making large use of chemists, physicists, and geologists, the general public has similar need in its service for applied science.

The business policy of organizing scientific investigation for effective work, however, is far from novel, for in 1878, in the report to Congress advocating the creation of the United States Geological Survey, the National Academy of Sciences described the ideal plan for a scientific bureau as that which would yield the "best results at the least possible cost." Since that day, moreover, economy in science has become a more pressing issue.

At the centennial exercises of the United States Coast and Geodetic Survey, in April, 1916, the Director of the Geological Survey called attention to the gratifying fact that for nearly four decades the two Surveys had worked side by side in the cause of American science coordinately rather than competitively. The result has been economy instead of waste. With this record in mind the appeal was then made for the application to the business of the two score Federal scientific bureaus of the same rules that the legislatures and courts now enforce for the control of corporations. Unrestrained competition in the public service is no less wasteful than unregulated competition in private business. The ideal of the best service at the lowest cost leads to the recognition of the idea of natural monopolies in the Government scientific service, for this recognition will insure the same real saving to society that has come with the recent growth of public-utility monopolies. It does not follow that because the scientific bureau offers a special service to the public without direct price the public official is any less vitally interested in actual costs.

If the scientific work of the Government is to be organized on the basis of specialization rather than of competition the correlative idea of adequate regulation must be adopted. A large share of this duty of insuring a proper coordination of the public scientific work must be accepted directly by the bureau chiefs and their immediate advisers in the work of administration. Moreover, to this group of Government scientists the obligation is double-they are constrained as public servants to avoid wasteful use of public money and as scientists to conserve scientific effort by preventing duplication in research and in publication. Faith in the effectiveness of highly specialized science must carry with it the belief that some one bureau, by reason of its organization, personnel, and experience, can conduct scientific investigations of a certain kind better than any other bureau. This is practical logic of the type that is recognized in private business, for under the public regulation of natural monopoly the public-utility company that first enters the local field is recognized and even protected by the public-service commission as long as the service it renders is at all adequate. The attempt of an overzealous bureau chief to seek preferment for his bureau on other grounds is not in harmony with the public-service idea that the Federal scientific bureau is only an agency to get results that are of largest value to the public it serves.

STATISTICS THAT HAVE VALUE AS NEWS.

A leading trade journal in a recent editorial commented upon the United States Geological Survey's "enviable reputation for accuracy and preciseness throughout all its different branches" but added that

in maintaining this accuracy the Survey had "in the past shown a tendency to ignore the necessity for promptness in placing its vast store of statistical data before the public." This editorial, which was headed "Geological Survey speeding up on statistics," was prompted by the innovation in publishing statistics of coal production referred to below.

The obvious difficulty of giving to the public statistical data that are accurate and yet not somewhat out of date has been met since 1910 by supplementing the complete detailed reports with the publi cation in the first week of January of preliminary estimates of mineral production for the year just ended. These new-year statements have now attained a degree of accuracy that not only meets the practical needs of most users of this information but also robs the later complete reports of their news value. Thus the Survey's estimate of the gold output of Alaska for 1915, published January 1, 1916, was less than 1.2 per cent in excess of the final figures made public about four months later, and Alaska's exceptionally large yield of copper was estimated within 3 per cent. For the last two years the preliminary estimates of the coal output of the United States were only four-tenths of 1 per cent and 2.6 per cent in error; for the more erratic petroleum industry the estimates of marketed output published January 1 have been within one-half of 1 per cent and 5 per cent of the final figures; the preliminary estimates of cement were within three-tenths of 1 per cent and four-tenths of 1 per cent of the actual output. The Survey geologist who made an estimate of the output of iron ore for 1914, in a statement issued January 1, 1915, "approximated" the final figures with an error of only 239 tons, and his preliminary figures for the output in 1915, published January 1, 1916, were within nine-tenths of 1 per cent of the complete final figures.

It is, of course, through the collection of detailed statistics from individual producers that the specialist is able to keep so closely in touch with his subject that his preliminary estimates have high value for approximate accuracy. Some advances have been made in the date of publication of the final statistical reports, but here the compiler encounters the difficulty of obtaining full and prompt cooperation from a very small minority of the producers, so that it is the last 1 or 2 per cent of the returns that cost the most time and effort. A gain of weeks in the date of publication of the statistics of some products might be made, but only at a sacrifice in the quality of the results. The standard of accuracy maintained by the man of scientific training shows itself in his aversion to round figures. The Survey will continue to seek improvement in the promptness of issue of the final reports, but the public need for authoritative mineral statistics possessing full news value will be met by estimates pub

lished January 1 and at other times in the year. The Survey's newyear and mid-year statements have already won a place in the public press because they furnish the business interests with impartial estimates of the rate of production of the raw materials and fuels that are so essential to the Nation's industry and commerce.

As information to be valuable must be timely, the Geological Survey regards the preparation and issue of its quarterly and monthly statements as representing the ideal plan for statistics of all the principal metals and mineral fuels. Already a further step in the same direction has been planned: commencing August 15, the Survey will issue every month a comparative statement of railroad movement of coal and coke for the preceding month. It is believed that these authoritative figures will furnish the public a valuable index of the general industrial conditions as well as of the current rate of utilization of the country's mineral reserves.

THE GEOLOGY OF PETROLEUM.

The far-reaching importance to the United States of an adequate supply of petroleum and gasoline has long been recognized by the Survey, which during the last two years has made greater efforts than ever before to assist in discovering and in developing new oil reserves. Brief accounts of the work accomplished, with titles of reports published or in preparation this year, describing the structure and oil prospects in many new and undeveloped areas, especially in the Western States, in the Southwest, and in the Midcontinent region, will be found in the record of the geologic work carried on in the several States (pp. 409-449). Even with all the funds which, with justice to other mineral interests, could be devoted to investigations of oil and gas, it has not been found possible to extend these researches at all in proportion to the increase in public demand for information both as to old and to new fields. A recent editorial in the Standard Oil Bulletin states: "Time was when oil operators were strongly inclined to give little or no heed to the opinions of geologists, but that time is past." The value of the studies of geologic structure in the search for oil is not only thus recognized by the great oil companies, but most of these corporations are now recruiting corps of geologists, if they had not already had trained geologists in their employ. Naturally, the information thus acquired by these corporations for their guidance in leasing lands and in locating exploratory drill holes is not available to the public-a fact which makes more pressing the need of the landowner and of the small independent driller for all the information which the Federal or State surveys can give.

One function that is especially appropriate for the national service is the prosecution of field studies seeking a better understanding