Estimated Federal Cost: (1976 prices): $391,000,000 $273,000,000 $ 13,100,000 -Not available $ 59,800,000 $ 38,900,000 $92,100,000 $ 46,900,000 This assessment was developed by an outside independent consultant for another Federal Agency and should not be construed as an official or unofficial US Army Corps of Engineers' prognosis. MAY 1977 Bureau of Reclamation Department of Transportation US Coast Guard St Lawrence Seaway Dev. Corp. Tennessee Valley Authority GRAND TOTAL Planning Implementation OM&R General Support TOTAL $ 3.260,000 264.997.000 390.472.000 1.020.000 $659 749 000 TABLE XXII 108.359,000 4.768.000 113.127.000 3.523.000 $659.749,000 This listing is subject to the following assumptions: 1. Double locking without a switchboat or helper boat will not be allowed when a lock becomes congested. 2. Total traffic will increase by about 50 percent between now and 1990. 3. Traffic patterns will not change radically over the next 15 years. 4. Each lock is looked at independently of all others. e.g. a particular lock's traffic is not constrained by an inability to pass through a constraint elsewhere in the system. 5. Smithland Locks on the Ohio River will open for navigation in 1978. In addition, due to hazardous conditions, Gallipolis Locks and Dam, Ohio River, Ohio and West Virginia should be included. Estimated Federal cost would be $143,000,000 (October 1976 prices). "For entire Illinois Duplicate Lock program, total esti mated cost is $781,300,000 of which $769,000,000 is the estimated Federal cost. Includes: Dresden Island, Marseilles, Starved Rock, Peoria, La Grange, Brandon Road and Lockport. Revised: September, 1976 29 U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS ESTIMATED NAVIGATION EXPENDITURES/FISCAL YEARS 1974 & 1975* (Millions of Dollars) Source Directorate of Ciml Works US Army Corps of Engineers. DAEN CWO 1976 "Note Includes an allocation to the Navigation purpose of 136% of nationu ide annual construction plus Operation and Maintenance expenditures for multiple projects benefiting navigation In addition. 25% of the annual construction and O&M expenditures for the major Mississippi River and Tnbutanes project are included (largely for flood control, not for providing the minimum nine foot navigation channel) P Energy and Environmental Considerations etroleum products account for more than 95 per cent of the energy used to operate transportation in the United States. Transportation usage ac counts for more than one half of all the petroleum consumption in this country. It is generally agreed that the world supply of petrole um is limited. The current energy shortage should be considered to be a permanent situation, at least until new sources of abundant energy are developed. Numer ous authorities differ as to the actual availability of alternative sources. However, it must be assumed that, in the near future and probably for the remainder of this century, fossil fuels will continue to be the principal sources of energy. The implications for the future national transportation system are serious. A comprehensive national energy policy must be developed. A fully coordinated, concerted effort must be made to conserve energy. It must be recognized, however, that total dependence on conser vation measures will only postpone the day when conventional energy resources will be exhausted. Very simply stated, we cannot "save" our way into having enough energy. We must develop new reserves of oil and gas. This could be accelerated by the removal of unreasonable barriers to exploration on the Outer Continental Shelf. We must expand the use of coal and intensify the research and development of new energy sources. The U.S. energy industries have the management ability, the research and technological expertise, and the capital generating ability to help develop these essential energy resources. The comprehensive energy policy must also recognize that the economic law of supply and demand is forcing energy costs upward. This economic law cannot be repealed by Congress or administrative edict. Price controls only provide a temporary expedient. It is extremely important to remove, those price controls which discour age the exploration, development and marketing of currently untapped energy supplies. A realistic pricing of energy supplies would obviously affect consumers' transportation choices. Making the less energy efficient modes more expensive would certainly tend to accomplish this purpose. There is some disagreement among researchers as to comparative energy efficiencies among transportation modes. It is easy enough, of course, to measure the amount of fuel which a particular engine consumes in moving a certain vehicle with a certain load. However, some modes typically take routes which are much more circuitous than other modes. There is also the matter of unused capacity, vacant space and "deadhead" runs. For example, the fuel efficiency of the owner driver automobile is enhanced whenever the vehicle is occupied by more than just the driver. Table XXVI below summarizes the energy efficiencies of several passenger modes, as determined by eight different studies. There is a very significant dif ference between "passenger miles per gallon" and "seatmiles per gallon" because many seats are often empty. This study suggests the need for increased emphasis on car pooling and van pooling, coupled with increased utilization of scheduled passenger service, both local and intercity. Over scheduling of any type of passenger service is a convenience to the public, but is also very expensive in terms of energy consumption. The present energy-efficiency of transportation reflects, to a very large extent, a transportation technology which was developed before the 1973-1974 energy crisis. There is obviously considerable room for improvement in every mode. The Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 included a section establishing mandatory fuel economy standards for automobiles. The law requires an 18 miles per gallon fleet weighted average in 1978, climbing to Energy and Environment Continued 20 mpg in 1980 and to 27.5 mpg by 1985 There is serious question that these requirements can be met In order to approach these goals there will have to be some very strong trade offs made between weight and - horsepower. Major engine manufacturers are currently giving serious attention both to the improvement of engine efficiency and also to the conversion to alternative fuels. These include a number of liquids distilled from coal and oil shale, methanol and vanous synthetics. One of the considerations necessary in the evaluation of new engine technology and new fuels is the amount of environmental degradation involved. This includes both environmental problems in mining and manufac turing, in addition to the undesirable emissions from the vehicle itself. A third class of environmental problem is encountered in the actual construction of transporta tion facilities Some trade-offs appear inevitable Environmental safeguards add tremendously to the cost of total transportation This does not suggest that the national interest in protecting and enhancing the environment should be abandoned It is important, however, to meas ure the true and total economic costs of environmental programs. Based on such an analysis, environmental goals can be reached in the most cost effective manner Encouraging progress has been made on many fronts Automotive air pollution has been substantially reduced in recent years Newer transportation vehicles are also significantly less noisy than earlier models. New con struction procedures minimize soil erosion and other disturbances to the natural environment. In these and other relatively new areas of national emphasis, unnecessary costs have oftentimes been added by cumbersome governmental regulations. New programs inevitably involve some tnal and error. There is strong hope, and also a keen desire, that the more ra tional program elements will survive while those which are unworkable will be weeded out as quickly as possible. No group of people in America is more concerned about our energy and environmental problems than the transportation construction industry All of these problems impact very heavy on transportation and transportation development every day In expressing optimism that these problems will be solved, it is not intended to suggest that the problems should be ignored The problems will be solved only through the strongest kind of national effort and leadership, utilizing all of the strengths and talents of both govemment and the entire Amencan business community 32 ATAC REPORT T Conclusion The preceding pages have emphasized the magnitude and complexity of America's transportation system Our ability to move people, goods and services quickly and efficiently has produced a society whose quality of life and material standard of living are the envy of the world. America's mobility did not, however, evolve by chance. It developed concurrently with the nation's economic and industrial growth. Important factors lead to the construction of safe, dependable systems of transportation. As illustrated in this report, there are equally important factors demanding that these systems be protected, maintained and in many cases expanded. The United States is a big diverse land which vitally depends upon a multitude of transportation modes to get produce from the fields to the supermarket and dinner table, and products from the factory to the sup plier and user. These various modes must be continually improved and updated to meet the needs of an expanding population and a dynamic economy. Today's increased awareness of social and environmental goals has also created an even greater demand to improve the safety and serviceability of our transportation system. Intense competition and rivalries for funding among various transportation modes have developed in recent years. Several factors have contributed to this problem such as railroads in many areas of the country are collapsing financially, public transit systems in larger ches are depending more and more upon government subsidies to pay daily operating expenses, the nation's highways are deteriorating over twice as fast as they are being repaired or replaced; and improved design standards to implement safety and environmental features are placing a strain on the budgets of each trans portation mode. Costs for the fuel, labor and materials which each mode uses have nearly doubled in the last ten years. The makings of a full scale transportation crisis appear imminent. The problem is twofold. First, the public is as yet unaware that a transportation crisis exists. Second, funding requirements for each mode of transportation is increasing while current funding sources are not keeping pace. To date very little has been done about either the public's ignorance or the dwindling supply of transportation revenues. Some have felt the Highway Trust Fund should be tapped to meet all transportation needs. The Trust Fund user tax concept has proven to be a very effective and successful mechanism. However, it cannot, in its present form support all of this nation's transportation needs. The user tax concept, however, could and perhaps should be copied and expanded to meet the requirements of all transportation modes. This report projects transportation funding needs by mode for the ten year period beginning in 1978. The ATAC members are unanimous in recommending in creasing substancially the Federal Government's partici Several possible funding mechanisms are explored We have presented the President, the Secretary of Transportation and the Congress the benefit of our industry's expertise and most current factual data. We have supplied an overview of the present situation, projected future transportation needs, and made recom: mendations for programs and funding options. We now stand ready and willing to lend whatever assistance we can to ensure that the soundest alternatives are chosen and implemented. The time has come for all parties concerned; Congress, the Administration, the States, the Local Governments, the Industry and the Public to jointly adopt a direction and programs that will guarantee the solvency of this nation's transportation system for future genera tions. Appendix A Additional comments on highway needs n reviewing the draft of this report, several representatives of participating organizations noted that the foregoing discussion of highway needs is quite brief. Collectively, they deemed the analysis a much too cur sory analysis of a multi-billion dollar investment program. In the effort to be concise, numerous subjects have obvously been omitted or touched upon lightly. The approach taken by the 1972 National Highway Needs Report, updated by the 1974 National Highway Needs Report, is the traditional analytical methodology based on field studies. This approach compares existing highway facilities with a predetermined standard of quality. To the extent that existing highways fail to meet this standard, an immediate "backlog" need exists. Dif ferent standards are established for the various functional categories of roads. In addition to this determination of present needs, it is necessary to factor in some projection of future requirements. This must include consideration of (a) the expected deterioration of existing facilities based on antici pated wear and tear and natural decay. (b) a projection of future traffic growth and (c) the extent to which addi tional costs may be incurred by quality improvement. This should include those improvements intended to provide greater safety and also to conform to realistic environmental goals. MAY 1977 |