other pertinent data which relate to making an estimate of the kind of damage that we have suffered.

Senator GURNEY. It is a very fine report too. It seems to be quite complete.

How long did it take you to assemble the data to make this report? Mr. VAGTBORG. To answer the question directly, it took us just a week, but it was because of unusual circumstances that we were able to do that.

We were created 2 years ago to make a study of the industrial potentialities and the river conditions in the Missouri River Basin, and we had 9 months of background work.

Senator GURNEY. Your entire statement is about a dozen pages, and we will take that and insert it in the record at this point. (The statement referred to is as follows:)

FLOOD DAMAGE STUDY, LOWER MISSOURI RIVER BASIN, JUNE 1947

SUMMARY

This study shows that approximately 21⁄2 million acres were flooded in the 1947 June flood of the lower Missouri River Basin, with a loss between $123,500,000 and $127,000,000. This flooded area is equivalent to about 3,700 square miles or as large as the combined areas of the States of Delaware and Rhode Island, and nearly equal to the area of the State of Connecticut. The land in this river basin bottom is extremely fertile and about 72 percent of it is normally given to the production of crops. This means that about 1,750,000 acres of crops were destroyed or 2,600 square miles. The value of these crops has been calculated in this study to be about $99,000,000. In addition, a further $4,500,000 to $9,000,000 loss to farm buildings and equipment, livestock, and land has occurred. Thus, the total loss to agriculture alone is between $103,500,000 to $108,000,000. In addition to the agricultural losses, the loss to municipalities, railroads, highways, river structures, and nonagricultural activities has been exceptionally heavy, since in many regions the water level rose to new record heights. Installations and structures assumed safe in the past have been heavily damaged in this flood. A very conservative calculation of the damage to all other properties than agricultural shows an additional $19,000,000 loss.

Besides this actual loss of about $127,000,000, nearly all of which may be called direct out-of-the-pocket loss to the people of the region, many times this amount will probably be lost in addition in an indirect manner. Such items as loss in business, loss in time, upset freight deliveries, transportation up-sets from delayed trains and blocked highways, and many other intangibles cannot be accurately estimated, but nevertheless must be kept constantly in mind as not included in the total figure of $127,000,000 loss indicated above.

INTRODUCTION

The main objective of this study is to determine an advanced estimate of the property damage caused by the 1947 June flood in the lower Missouri River Basin. The study includes the damage in the main stem of the river from Omaha to St. Louis and the damage caused by 21 of the main tributaries which join the Missouri in that region. The actual physical damage estimated is divided into three main groups as follows:

1. Damage to agriculture crops.

2. Damage to agriculture other than crops, and includes farm buildings and equipment, livestock, fences, land damage by sand deposits, and miscellaneous.

3. Damage to properties other than agriculture, and includes highways, railroads, airports, bridges, municipal losses including residential property, business property, flood fighting, and miscellaneous.

Besides these actual losses nearly all of which are direct losses, there is also a huge intangible loss, such as loss of time, freight and passenger delays on rail

roads and highways, loss of business, health hazards, etc. These losses of an indirect nature are not included in this study but only the direct losses are included as outlined above.

Even though it is difficult to get an accurate estimate of damage while a flood is still in process, it is possible to obtain an estimate which can stand as an index to the great damage that has resulted through inadequate facilities for flood control in the Missouri River Basin.

FLOOD LOSSES

In order to determine the dollar value of a flood loss, it is necessary to deter mine the extent of the area flooded and the nature of the activities that normally are carried out in the flooded region.' It is also important to study the calculated damage from detailed studies of previous floods of the same region. This data collected in the past is usually based on measurements and actual cost of repairs obtained after the flood had receded. The figures in these reports are therefore usually quite accurate and may be used to form indexes upon which to calculate the losses of future floods.

The extent of the area covered by the flood waters was obtained by preparing a set of maps. These maps were prepared from the United States Geographical and Geological Survey Maps and cover the entire lower Missouri River Basin. The various areas covered by the flood may be determined from these contour maps simply by knowing the highest stage of the river at various points along its course during the time of the flood. (Maps at reduced scale from the original maps used are shown in Appendix A. These maps are for the main stem of the Missouri River and are preceded with an index map and general map showing the flooded area.) From these maps it is possible to calculate, quite accurately, the total area inundated by the flood. Table I of the appendix shows these areas for the Missouri River main stem and for 21 of its main tributaries. The total number of acres flooded as determined in this manner was 2,420,000 acres, or about 3,700 square miles.

In order to determine the percentage of cropland inundated and the general activity of the flooded area, the river was inspected by an air survey party of four men. The main stem was covered in detail from Omaha to St. Louis, and a great deal of time was spent studying the general damage in the main stem and the tributaries. Photographs 1 to 10 of appendix A show the general extent to which the flood has affected the flooded region.

This air survey indicated that about 75 percent of the region flooded was devoted to cropland. This figure is further substantiated by records of past floods in this region where the ratio of cropland inundated to the total land inundated is found to be 0.72, or 72 percent of the total land flooded. Since this calculated value obtained from detailed reports was thought to be more accurate, it was decided to use this figure to determine the percentage of the total inundated area that was normally planted to crops. This figure applied to the total inundated area of 2,420,000 acres yields 1,742,000 acres of cropland inundated, or about 2,600 square miles.

In addition to the topographical maps, nine hydrographs, for 1947, to the end of June are shown. They were prepared for nine stations in the basin and are as follows: Republican River at Guide Rock, Nebr.; Missouri River at Nebraska City, Nebr.; Missouri River at St. Joseph, Mo.; Missouri River at Kansas City, Mo.; Grand River at Chillicothe, Mo.; Missouri River at Hermann, Mo.; Missouri River at Booneville, Mo.; Missouri River at St. Charles, Mo.; Missouri River at Waverly, Mo. In general, these hydrographs when combined with the topographical maps show the great volume of water which could no longer be contained between the banks of the river and of necessity had to overflow onto the immediate surrounding land. The horizontal line drawn at flood stage on these hydrographs (appendix A) shows the maximum gage depth that the river can take at that point without overflowing its banks. It is easy to see from these hydrographs, when compounded with the topographical maps, that millions of acre-feet of water were involved in the flood, cutting channels in the land in the manner shown in photograph 10, appendix A,

In order to obtain a reliable estimate it was decided that the data on the 1943 flood could best be used to establish the index of damage, especially if these indexes could be substantiated by independent calculations. The 1943 flood data

1 The Midwest Research Institute enjoys a strong position in this respect since it completed earlier this year a study of the natural resources of the lower Missouri River Basin. A copy of the map prepared in this study of the natural resources is included in this report as Appendix B.

was selected for this purpose since it is believed that these floods represented somewhat similar conditions even if somewhat less in extent to those of the present flood. The main difference other than the severity of the flood is that this flood has occurred some 6 to 7 weeks later in the year, causing greater crop damage on the average.

A study of the data of these floods showed the following:

1. Loss to agriculture-crops.-Agricultural land given to crops showed on the average a loss of $30.10 for each crop-acre inundated. Naturally, the actual value from point to point varies somewhat depending upon the actual crop material lost, fertility of the soil, and growing season.

2. Loss to agriculture-other than crops.-Agricultural losses other than crops showed on the average a loss of $3.70 per each crop-acre inundated. This figure includes damage to farm buildings and equipment, fences, livestock, land damage, and miscellaneous.

3. Loss other than agricultural.-All other losses than agricultural losses showed on the average a value of $5.40 per each acre of land inundated. This figure includes railroads, highways, municipalities, including residential property, bridges, business property, utilities, and miscellaneous.

While in restricted areas these index figures cannot be used to determine local losses, they may be used for computing total losses when large areas of the Missouri River Basin are involved, since the index is for the basin as a whole. In order to apply these index values to the 1947 flood it is necessary to adjust them to a new price level now in effect. The adjustment made in each case is as follows:

1. Adjustment to agricultural losses-crop-total crop loss 1947.-This adjustment involves two factor. The first is that the 1943 flood was an April to May flood and occurred before corn was planted and was early enough in the growing season so that some of the land could be placed in production. The present flood (June 1947) has occurred so late in the growing season that it covered the corn crop as well as earlier crops and the possibility of replanting and getting any marketable crop is very meager. About 15 percent more loss per acre would result from this fact. The second factor to be considered in the adjustment is the increase in crop market value since 1943, and this is found from the farm index to have increased from 75 to 95 percent. In view of these conditions, the loss per acre of crop land flooded must be adjusted upward. A conservative factor of 90 percent was used, being the combination of the 15 percent increase for more crops planted and the lower farm index figure. This gives the index for loss of the 1947 June flood for crops alone as about $57 per acre. When this figure is applied to the 1,742,000 acres, the crop loss is estimated at $99,000,000.

This loss of $99,000,000 can be substantiated by an independent calculation based on the data given in tables II and III. Detailed information on the 1944 flood for 18 typical areas along the Missouri River from Holt County, Iowa, to St. Charles County, Mo., is given in this table. The location of the typical areas studied are shown by numbers on the index map. It may be noted that a total of 86,451 acres were inundated in these typical areas, 73,580 acres of crop land and 12,880 acres of timber and waste land. Approximately 42,000 acres were idle crop land and would normally be planted to corn. In the 1947 June flood this land could not be seeded to corn and yield the farmer a cash crop. Of necessity, it must be replaced by a forage crop.

If one assumes that the 1944 flood occurred in June instead of April, the total crop loss for the 1947 flood can be approximated as follows: About 22,000 acres of wheat and 42,000 acres, that would normally be planted to corn, would be inundated. Assuming a conservative average yield of 20 bushels of wheat and 55 bushels of corn per acre of bottom land, this results in 440,000 bushels of wheat and 2,225,000 bushels of corn lost. At $2 per bushel (1947 price) for wheat, and $1.99 per bushel for corn, this represents a monetary loss of over $5,000,000 for about 75,000 acres of crop land selected as representative. If this same average rate of loss is extended over the 1,742,000 acres actually inundated, the result is approximately $109,000,000. The value of total loss of $99,000,000 estimated is therefore believed to be reasonable.

2. Adjustment to agricultural losses other than crop.-This adjustment is made on the basis of increased labor and general farm equipment cost. This is based on the opinion of labor unions and manufacturers. It is estimated that an increase of about 40 percent on the average has taken place between 1943 and 1947. Applying tihs adjustment to the index for 1943, the index figure of $5.20 per crop-acre is found. If this index is applied to the total inundated crop-acres

for the June 1947 flood, the total loss of $9,000,000 is found. An independent calculation of this loss based on the same 18 typical regions used above gives a loss of $4,650,000. (See table IV, appendix A). This value is somewhat smaller than that derived from the 1943 index. However, the 1944 flood was not very large in scope and this value is a very conservative estimate.

3. Adjustment to nonagricultural losses.-Since this flood produced record high water in many places and came near record high water in many others, the damage to many structures, highways, and railroads is very severe and the index calculated for 1943-44, even when adjusted, will be very conservative. The increase in the cost of labor and material cost in the basin, determined by contacting contractors and labor union representatives, results in an estimated average increase of 45 percent since 1943. Using this adjustment, the index for the 1947 flood becomes $7.80 per acre inundated. Applying this index to the total inundated area of 2,420,000 acres, the total nonagricultural loss is estimated at approximately $19,000,000.

It has been estimated by other sources (railroads and highway departments) that the total loss in this respect alone will be close to $15,000,000. Therefore, the figure of $19,000,000 is probably quite conservative since it includes all nonagricultural losses.

Total estimated loss

From the above calculations the total loss may be determined simply by adding all the component losses. This is as follows:

TABLE I-Summary-Area inundated main stem Missouri River and 21 tributaries Omaha to St. Louis, 1947 June flood