More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places (Updated and Expanded)Since its first publication, Michael J. Mauboussin's popular guide to wise investing has been translated into eight languages and has been named best business book by BusinessWeek and best economics book by Strategy+Business. Now updated to reflect current research and expanded to include new chapters on investment philosophy, psychology, and strategy and science as they pertain to money management, this volume is more than ever the best chance to know more than the average investor. Offering invaluable tools to better understand the concepts of choice and risk, More Than You Know is a unique blend of practical advice and sound theory, sampling from a wide variety of sources and disciplines. Mauboussin builds on the ideas of visionaries, including Warren Buffett and E. O. Wilson, but also finds wisdom in a broad and deep range of fields, such as casino gambling, horse racing, psychology, and evolutionary biology. He analyzes the strategies of poker experts David Sklansky and Puggy Pearson and pinpoints parallels between mate selection in guppies and stock market booms. For this edition, Mauboussin includes fresh thoughts on human cognition, management assessment, game theory, the role of intuition, and the mechanisms driving the market's mood swings, and explains what these topics tell us about smart investing. More Than You Know is written with the professional investor in mind but extends far beyond the world of economics and finance. Mauboussin groups his essays into four parts-Investment Philosophy, Psychology of Investing, Innovation and Competitive Strategy, and Science and Complexity Theory-and he includes substantial references for further reading. A true eye-opener, More Than You Know shows how a multidisciplinary approach that pays close attention to process and the psychology of decision making offers the best chance for long-term financial results. |
Contents
Introduction | 1 |
Investment Philosophy In troduction | 5 |
Process and Outcome in Investing | 9 |
2 InvestingProfession or Business? Thoughts on Beating the Market Index | 15 |
Frequency Versus Magnitude in Expected Value | 23 |
The Importance of CircumstanceBased Categorization | 29 |
Risk Uncertainty and Prediction in Investing | 35 |
6 Are You an Expert? Experts and Markets | 40 |
21 Is There a Fly in Your Portfolio? What an Accelerating Rate of Industry Change Means for Investors | 143 |
How to Balance the Long Term with the Short Term | 148 |
Fitness Landscapes and Competitive Advantage | 153 |
The Folly of Using Average PEs | 159 |
Mean Reversion and Turnarounds | 165 |
Considering Cooperation and Competition Through Game Theory | 171 |
On the Limits of Corporate Growth | 176 |
Science and Complexity Theory Introduction | 185 |
What Streaks Tell Us About Perception Probability and Skill | 46 |
Myopic Loss Aversion and Portfolio Turnover | 52 |
Management Evaluation and the Investment Process | 60 |
Psychology of Investing Introduction | 67 |
Linking Stress to Suboptimal Portfolio Management | 71 |
What Tupperware Parties Teach You About Investing and Life | 77 |
Emotion and Intuition in Decision Making | 83 |
The Role of Imitation in Markets | 89 |
Misuse of Behavioral Finance Can Lead to Bad Thinking | 94 |
LongTerm Expectations the El Farol Bar and Kidding Yourself | 99 |
Investing with Naturalistic Decision Making | 104 |
What Did You Learn from the Last Survey? | 110 |
Innovation and Competitive Strategy Introduction | 117 |
Why Innovation Is Inevitable | 121 |
What Brain Development Teaches Us About Innovation | 130 |
Linking Creative Destruction and Expectations | 137 |
Thoughts on Organizing for Investing Success | 187 |
The Wisdom and Whims of the Collective | 193 |
Using the Collective to Find Solve and Predict | 198 |
Fat Tails and Investing | 203 |
Two Lessons from the St Petersburg Paradox | 209 |
Why Listening to Individuals Can Be Hazardous to Your Wealth | 216 |
The Role of Cause and Effect in Markets | 221 |
Power Laws and What They Mean for Investors | 229 |
Firm Size Growth Rates and Valuation | 235 |
Exploring the Markets Mood Swings | 243 |
Exploring SelfAffi nity in Return on Investment | 249 |
The Future of Consilience in Investing | 255 |
Notes | 259 |
References and Further Reading | 291 |
| 315 | |
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More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places ... Michael J. Mauboussin No preview available - 2007 |
Common terms and phrases
Amos Tversky ants asset author analysis average beat the market Behavioral Finance Boston Equity Research Buffett CFROI Charlie Munger chess clockspeed companies company’s competitive complex adaptive system Corporate cost of capital Credit Suisse Daniel Kahneman decision markets diversity earnings efficient evidence example EXHIBIT expected value firms fitness landscape focus fractal future growth rate Harvard Business human idea individual industry innovation interaction investment investors Journal of Finance lead long-term look Loss Aversion Mauboussin Michael money managers Mutual Fund naturalistic decision normal distribution outcomes outperform past payoff percent performance Petersburg Paradox players portfolio turnover positive feedback power laws predictions price changes probability problem prospect theory provides Psychology random risk Robert scientists self-organized shareholder shows social Source standard deviation stock market stock price strategy streak suggests Suisse First Boston tend theory tion tive understand versus York Zipf Zipf Distribution Zipf's Law
