CHAPTER XIII

TRAFFIC AND EARNINGS

The transportation industry, in meeting the requirements of the rapidly expanding national economy, more than doubled the volume of traffic handled; was forced to adjust operations to wide fluctuations in total demand for service; and experienced substantial shifts in the shares of traffic handled by the several modes. These developments occurred against an international background of World War II, the Korean conflict, and cold war attitudes and a domestic economic environment ranging from depression to prosperity. These conditions were accompanied by technological changes having great economic impact. Revenue changes attended those in traffic, but they reflect also the general rise in price levels.

CHANGES IN VOLUME: TON-MILES, PASSENGER-MILES, AND

CARRIER REVENUES

Ton-miles.-Ton-miles by agency of transport are shown by the accompanying chart for 1939-60; comparable data for earlier and later years are not available for all agencies. The period under consideration began during the long depression preceding World War II-a time in which an exceptionally light flow of traffic reflected the low level of general business activity. During World War II and again during the Korean "police action," total intercity ton-miles reached new highs. These record levels were exceeded in the years 1955-57; and ton-miles in 1959 and 1960, while below the years 1956 and 1957, were still above those for any year prior to 1956.1

Participation in these increases has been uneven among the different agencies of transport. As shown by the charts on page 139, railroads handled the overwhelming bulk of the World War II increases in intercity traffic. Of a total increase in 1944 over 1939 of 545 billion ton-miles, the railroads handled 406 billions. However, the railroads have not since equalled the ton-mile production of 1944 and their share of the total has been decreasing. Despite this relative condition, the rails still showed in 1959 the greatest increase in ton-miles over 1939 of all agencies of transport.

1 Bureau of Transport Economic and Statistics, Statement No. 6103, Intercity Ton-Miles, 1939-1959, p. 4 (Washington, Interstate Commerce Commission, 1961), and later data.

1200

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

Source: 1939-1959, ICC, Bureau of Transport Economics and Statistics, Intercity Ton-Miles, 1939-1959, Statement No. 6103; 1960, stoff estimates

Source: 1939-59, I.C.C., Bureau of Transport Economics and Statistics, Intercity Ton-Miles, 1939-1959, Statement No. 6103; 1960. staff estimates.

1950

1955

1960

Motor vehicles, subject to fuel and tire rationing and other restrictions during the war, contributed less than 10 billion additional ton-miles per year over the 1939 level in the years 1942-44, but subsequently have shown a generally upward trend of marked proportions, the level in 1960 being over five times that of 1939. In the same period waterway ton-miles have more than doubled and those of pipelines have quadrupled. The greatest percentage increases, and the smallest in actual amount, were shown by the airways, which even now contribute only a fraction of 1 percent of total intercity ton-miles.

All means of transport, except the railroads, have repeatedly established new records in the production of ton-miles in the postwar years.

The chart on page 141 shows the indexes of intercity ton-miles, 1939-60. Also shown are the Federal Reserve Board indexes of industrial production (which does not cover all commodities transported) and the indexes of gross national product less services, deflated by a price index to accord with the nonvarying physical unit of ton-miles.

Passenger-miles.-Private automobiles dominate the intercity travel market. In recent years, nearly 90 percent of a continuously expanding volume of intercity passenger-miles has been produced by private automobiles. Following this in significance has been the growth in air transport. In 1936 and 1937, airlines supplied under half a billion passenger-miles, but in 1960 the certificated service in domestic operations supplied over 31 billion passenger-miles.

An extension of the Commission's jurisdiction over water carriers makes a trend comparison for them impossible for the entire period. The passenger operations of such carriers have been a small part of the total, although they are highly important in certain areas, such as Puget Sound and waters around some offshore New England islands. Certain water carriers of passengers in coastwise service, whose vessels were taken over by the Government during World War II, did not resume operations after that war.

Bus intercity transport came under Commission jurisdiction with the passage of the Motor Carrier Act of 1935. Data were not obtained for earlier years, but in 1939 these carriers subject to the Commission's regulation produced about 9.1 billion intercity passenger-miles over regular routes in scheduled intercity service, plus an unknown amount of special or charter service. During World War II, such special or charter service was contrary to Defense Transportation orders. Under war conditions, the total production of passenger-miles by motor carriers rose to 27.0 billion in 1945, but has declined in recent years. The resumption of special and charter operations after the war aided in offsetting the decline in regular service mileage.

(including commutation) in 1944-a figure over four times the 1939 level and more than the total of all for-hire intercity passenger transport in each year of the period 1947-60. Since the peak year of 1944, rail passenger-miles have declined yearly except in 1951 during the INDEXES OF INTERCITY TON-MILES, INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, AND GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT (LESS SERVICES)

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Office of Business Economics, and Interstate Commerce Commission, Bureau of Transport Economics and Statistics, Intercity Ton-Miles, 1939–1959, Statement No. 6103; staff estimates.

Korean "police action." They now are less than those of the airways. Coincidental with this decline, the problem of the railroad passenger deficit has become more urgent and important.

Electric railways have been of minor and decreasing importance over the period as abandonments and changes to the line-haul railway category have reduced their numbers.

So far as data are available, intercity passenger-miles are shown in the accompanying chart. Absence of occupancy and certin other data have precluded private automobile figures prior to 1949, and a lack of data on charter or special and intrastate bus operations have prevented satisfactory estimates for the period prior to 1949 for motor carriers of passengers. Similarly, the rail total commences with the same year because of the absence of data for electric railways.