THE TREND IN FOOD PRICES RAYMOND T. BYE, A.M. It needs no elaborate array of statistical data to inform the American housewife of the trend in food prices. From the growing slimness of her marketing purse she knows, and her husband knows, that the trend is upward. To understand the real significance of this movement, however, it is necessary to measure the exact rate of the increase in prices, in order that this increase may be compared with the changes in wages. If money wages are rising as fast as prices, the worker's real income is as large as before and the increase of prices is of no real significance; but if wages are rising less rapidly than prices the standard of living of the workers is falling and we are face to face with a deteriorating society. It is the purpose of the present article to state precisely what the recent trend of prices in Philadelphia has been. The figures may then serve as a basis for comparison with the wage statistics given by Dr. Reitell in the latter part of this article. When this study was undertaken for the Mayor's Committee on Food Prices it soon became apparent that it would be very difficult, if not impossible, to trace for very many months back the changes in retail prices, owing to the fact that the dealers themselves do not keep a record of their own past prices. The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, however, has for some years been receiving retail food price quotations from certain representative stores in various cities, and it very courteously consented to the use of its Philadelphia quotations for this study. Upon them most of the charts and tables used here are based. Through the coöperation of the Philadelphia Society for Organizing Charity, which lent its district workers to the task, it was also possible to make a detailed study of the food prices in March, 1917 in some two hundred Philadelphia stores. The writer, therefore, cannot lay claim to a great deal of independent research in gathering the data for this article, but frankly acknowledges his indebtedness to the sources named. The study embraces the period from January, 1915 to August, 1917, inclusive. While a gradual increase in food prices has been a normal phenomenon in this country over a long period of years, it is the extreme accentuation of this tendency within the past year that has caused such general alarm and resulted in food riots. The changes in the price of twenty-two principal articles of food in Philadelphia, shown in Chart 1, makes this very clear. This chart shows the average price of twenty-two articles of food which have been selected by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics as representing over twothirds of the average family expenditure for food in this part of the country as determined by an actual study of family budgets.1 The twenty-two articles of food on which the chart is based are as follows: A simple average of the prices of these twenty-two articles would be inaccurate, for a change in the price of a commodity like flour or potatoes would have a far greater effect on the family budget than a corresponding change in the price of cheese. The food prices were therefore "weighted" by multiplying them with the average quantity of each article consumed in workingmen's families.2 The curve is thus a graphic representation of this weighted average of price changes and fairly shows what may be termed the "effective" price changes for the period named instead of the simple average price changes. It accurately measures the increased drain on the family pocketbook, not allowing for any change in wages, occasioned by the recent movement of food prices. The chart shows that while prices remained fairly constant throughout the year 1915, in 1916 they began slowly to rise, taking a sudden leap in August of that year, rising rapidly almost unchecked until June, 1917. Taking the average price of all articles for the year 1916 as 100, the relative price in June, 1917 was 145 as compared with 89 in June, 1915, an increase in two years of 63 per cent. 1 U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Annual Report, 1901.. 2 Ibid. In one year the increase was 48 per cent. In August of the present year prices had somewhat declined, but were still 60 per cent higher than two years previously, the relative price being 141 as compared with 88. Moreover, the fact that prices were somewhat lower in August than in June is not to be taken as an indication that the 145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 -1915 1916 -19 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May crest of the wave has been reached, for in July and August of each year a slight fall in prices is a normal phenomenon, as shown by the chart, followed by a rise again in the fall. Indeed the curve shows that the low level for the present year was reached in June, when the relative price was 140, and that in August the rise had already set in again. This price increase can be studied in greater detail in Table I, page 244, which shows the relative prices of twenty-seven articles of food in Philadelphia, by months, from January, 1915 to August, 1917. The first column, "22 Articles Combined," gives the weighted average relative prices of the twenty-two articles of food on which 1915 1916 1917 Jan Mar May July Sept. Nov Jan Mar May July Sept Nov Jan Mar May July Sept CHART II 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 Chart I is based. Charts II, III, IV, and V show in graphic form the tively, while eggs in August of this year were 49 per cent higher than in August of 1915. Flour, a basic article of diet, took a tremendous leap in the latter months of 1916, fell somewhat in June and July but was on the upward trend in August again. Flour in May was 93 per cent higher than two years previously. Bread, of course, has risen similarly. More pronounced even than these increases, how Jan Mar May July Sept|Nov Jan Mar May July Sept|Nov Jan Mar May July Sept ever, were those in potatoes and onions, which occurred last spring. Potatoes are an extremely important item to the masses and it is not to be wondered at that the high prices prevailing led to suffering and rioting. Potatoes in June of this year were 234 per cent higher than in June, 1915. Onions in April, 1917 had a relative price of 279 as compared with 64 two years previously, an increase of 336 per cent. The price of the twenty-two articles mentioned above, multi |