export, and possibly would be capable of materially reducing the Central Powers' deficit at the present time. The neutral nations bordering the Central Powers are all wheat importing nations, and presumably can be of little or no aid in supplying this grain. But unless the Central Powers have been able materially to increase wheat production in the face of increased consumption in the army, lack of skilled man power for the farms, shortage of fertilizer and actual destruction by the acts of war, the supply must be short of actual demands. With the exception of Spain, the neutral countries, largely for climatic reasons, are small producers and therefore largely depend on importations. Neutral imports exceeded neutral exports by 67,000,000 bushels in the average for the period 1911-1913. The western allies were, in spite of large wheat production, the chief importers. With a total production of 591,000,000 bushels, there is practically no export, and 344,000,000 bushels of import to supply the needs. The wheat importations necessary therefore to supply the deficit of the European countries, excluding Russia, before the war, were 465,000,000 bushels of which the neutral nations and the western allies required 411,000,000 bushels. How can this shortage for the neutral nations and the allies be met? The wheat production of the western allies will this year fall far below the normal pre-war production. France, whose average production in 1911-1913 was 324,000,000 bushels will produce this year but one-half this crop-162,000,000 bushels. On the basis of pre-war conditions France would require therefore an importation of 182,000,000 bushels. The wheat crop of Italy is below the pre-war average, and it is estimated that Italy's deficit will amount to 73,000,000 as compared to 59,000,000 bushels for 19111913. The wheat crop in the United Kingdom is reported in excellent condition, but an importation of over 200,000,000 bushels may be required to fully meet the needs. This gives a total deficiency of over 457,000,000 bushels of wheat for the three western allies. To this must be added the needs of Greece and Portugal (9,000,000 bushels before the war) and the neutral countries which, as we have seen, in the pre-war period amounted to 67,000,000 bushels. Can the wheat exporting nations meet this western European "Estimate of International Institute of Agriculture as given in monthly Crop Report, United States Department of Agriculture, August, 1915. deficiency of over 524,000,000 bushels? Of the five countries that usually have a large available surplus of wheat-United States, Canada, Argentina, India and Australia-one, Argentina, has practically no surplus, the 1916-1917 crop being practically a failure. Canada will probably have a surplus of 120,000,000 bushels, and Australia 50,000,000. This gives a total of 328,000,000 bushels. To this may be added several million bushels of surplus from North Africa (Algeria and Tunis). But on the other hand South Africa, Brazil and Japan are in normal years additional wheat importing countries. It would seem, therefore, that the 1917 wheat supply would fall at least 200,000,000 bushels short of the normal demand, and will probably be over 300,000,000 bushels. Corn. Corn rivals wheat in quantity produced, but its importance as a food supply is very much less. This is due to the fact that the merits of corn as a human food are not fully appreciated by a large proportion of the human race, its cultivation is less capable of extension due to climatic limitations, and much of the crop is used for feeding animals. In the years 1911-1913, the United States produced 2,700,000,000 bushels of corn, against 3,800,000,000 bushels for the world production. This was over 71 per cent of the world crop. Most of this great yield was consumed at home by cattle and swine, only 48,000,000 bushels (1 per cent) being exported. Argentina, the second country in production, produced in the same period 252,000,000 bushels, of which half (128,000,000 bushels) was exported. The only other countries in which corn production exceeded 100,000,000 bushels were Austria-Hungary, Roumania and Italy. India, Russia, Egypt, South Africa and Bulgaria are lesser producers. Since the United States crop for 1917 promises to surpass all previous records, the estimate being 3,248,000,000 bushels, an increase of 700,000,000 bushels over the 1916 crop, the almost total failure of the Argentine crop is more than compensated. Since the corn crop of Italy also promises well for this season, the surplus corn may help in the conservation of our wheat. The corn crop of the United States for this year will be greater than the total world production previous to 1905. Rye and Barley. As a source of food in many countries of Europe, notably Russia and Germany, rye is a more important food supply than wheat. Barley is also of very great importance, although a considerable part of this crop has been used in the manu FIG. 4. LEADING COUNTRIES IN PRODUCTION, EXPORT AND IMPORT OF CORN, 1911-13, IN ORDER OF PRODUCTION. facture of malt. Over one-half of the world's rye and one-third of the world's barley are grown in Russia. Of the 1,783,000,000 bushels of rye produced in 1911-1913, the countries now occupied by the Central Powers produced 655,000,000 bushels, about 37 per cent of world production. These countries had a slight surplus for export, about 29,000,000 bushels above imports. For barley, the Central Powers were much more dependent upon the outside world. They imported, in addition to a production of 353,000,000 bushels, equivalent to one-fourth of the world production, 175,000,000 bushels, against an export of 41,000,000 bushels. Germany especially was a heavy importer of barley. |