Present supply and forecasted demand (statewide) are: Southeast counties, including San Bernardino, Riverside, and Imperial Counties, have this present supply and forecasted demand. 1 Indicates 1958 supply as a percent of 1980 requirements. The SCRRAS established "unsatisfied demand factor" (ratio of 1960 supplied activity days to each projected 1980 deficiency) as: The supply of land available to meet the forecasted demands has been analyzed in the Southern California Regional Recreation Area Study. No additional land was located for inclusion as wilderness area. It is unlikely any will be found, for it is impossible to create new wilderness areas. San Bernardino Mountain areas have present and potential supply as follows: The proposed ski area could be expected to attract an average annual attendance of 288,000 skier-days (600 acres of ski area x 480/acre-SCRRAS). In 1958, Arrowhead-Big Bear attracted about 160,000 skier-days. By 1965 this is estimated at 221,000, based on projections of CPORP. It is estimated by Inlandia Research that a large number of San Gorgonio skiers would be former Arrowhead-Big Bear skiers, perhaps as many as 144,000 skier-days, leaving a net gain of 144,000 new skier-days in San Bernardino County. The primary benefits to San Bernardino County are expected to be expenditures of skiers. Sources of information for this section are (1) "The Tourist and Recreation Industry in Vermont," previously mentioned; (2) "The Skier Market-Northeast North America," prepared in March 1964 by Sno-Engineering, Inc. for the Area Redevelopment Administration; and its (3) "Continued Study of the Skier Market in Northeast North America," prepared in November 1964, also by Sno-Engineering for the State of New Hampshire. Information was gathered in the "Skier Market" report for skiers who commute for the day, those who remain overnight away from home, and all skiers, as shown in Table 5. Since the prime attraction of San Gorgonio is its closeness to the metropolitan area, we can expect about 80% of users to be day-users (commuters), with 20% staying overnight in nearby areas. This gives us per year: Day users--- Total 230,000 X1 day =230, 000 skier-days 29,000X2 days= 58, 000 skier-days 259, 000 288,000 These figures are considered liberal. The "Skier Market" report showed the average skier skied 12.7 days per year at 4.3 different ski areas, for an average of 2.95 days at any specific location. The present skiers-70,000×2.95=206,500 skier-days for an average location. We will use the 288,000 for San Gorgonio. Expenditures of skiers can be estimated as follows: It can be seen that the biggest benefit will go to the operators of the ski lift, for operation, maintenance, construction, and depreciation. Some of this will go into the payrolls in the community, but most will be sent outside San Bernardino County. In addition 90 percent of transportation costs are expected to be paid outside the county. The benefit to the business community is exected to be negative, with increases of $625,010 offset by the loss to expected facilities of $1,143,570 for a net effect of a $518,560 loss per year. The lodging facilities at Big Bear appear to be the only business substantially benefited, in the $70,000 to $100,000 range. Major losses will be suffered by ArrowBig Bear ski areas, restaurants and retail businesses. Costs imposed by the proposal are more widespread, including both direct and indirect. Among direct costs are: 1. Road construction-estimated by road engineers at from $1 to $7 million. This will probably not increase taxes, but will delay other road projects by county or State. 2. Road maintenance-to be paid by the county. 3. Snow removal-a county responsibility with aid from the State. 4. Police protection-estimated to cost the county sheriff $20,000 to $30,000 annually. 5. Fire protection-to be provided by U.S. Forest Service. Indirect costs include: 1. Adverse effect on present and future users of wilderness area. 2. Adverse effects of existing camps in Barton Flats area. 3. Adverse effects on existing ski areas in San Bernardino County, including Moonridge, Snow Summit, Big Bear Park, and Snow Valley, Green Valley, and Rebel Ridge. COMMENTS Several economic factors besides costs and benefits must be considered. Attendance projections in recreation projects are quite easy to overstate. A notable example is the nearby tramway at Palm Springs. Usage has fallen far short of expectations. This has cut revenues, and payments have not been made on time for principle and interest on the bonds issued. Proponents of skiing facilities have indicated that need is shown by the fact that a wait is sometimes necessary at existing facilities. True, there is a wait, but this shows good planning, not poor. No facility, whether ski lift or freeway, can economically be built to accommodate peak crowds but must be designed for optimum usage. The question of whether San Gorgonio will be opened to skiing or not has had an adverse effect on decisions in other ski areas on potential investments. While attendance figures for the wilderness area are lower than they would be if skiing were permitted, this is proper and necessary. Preservation of a primitive natural, wilderness area requires low usage, as shown in the following quotations from "Recreational Use of Wild Lands," by C. Frank Brockman, professor of forestry, University of Washington, chapter 8, page 200. "RECREATIONAL LANDS OF ESSENTIALLY NATURAL CHARACTER" Certain outdoor recreational activities are valuable because of the feeling of physical and mental self-reliance or accomplishment which they develop in individuals. Such benefits are derived largely from areas typified by a truly natural landscape. These benefits may be derived from such divergent activities as the ascent of a mountain or the identification of wild flowers, but the primary value is a feeling of personal accomplishment that is derived from overcoming unusual physical difficulties not typical of modern living. Recreational rewards of this type are derived largely from primitive and significant areas. Primitive areas are extensive tracts unmarred by any type of modern development. Figuratively, they are islands in the sea of civilization, and those who use them must be as nearly self-sufficient as possible under today's conditions. Outstanding among lands of this type are specifically designated wilderness and wild areas in our national forests. Extensive wilderness terrain is also characteristic of many national parks, national monuments, wildlife refuges, and Indian reservations. The true wilderness, characterized by solitude and unmodified natural conditions is a priceless recreational heritage. Any relaxation of the standards which have been established to guard the characteristics of such lands, or any improvements which modify the necessity for individual self-sufficiency in their use, destroys their value. Further, as our way of life develops, it will become increasingly important to guard our remaining wilderness areas from mounting pressures which, although often presented as logical and harmless, would destroy them. True, the lack of modern facilities and comforts and the greater degree of experience and time required in the enjoyment of wilderness conditions restrict the use of such lands to a small segment of our population. But this a case for, not against, the retention of adequate wilderness country; it is a necessary adjunct of an over-all outdoor recreational program. Were wilderness areas made easily accessible, the very presence of large numbers of people, irrespective of the facilities that would certainly be required, would destroy the basic qualities of these areas. Other types of recreational lands are better adapted to the needs of individuals whose insufficient time, experience, physical ability, or resourcefulness to ensure safe and proper use of primitive lands. Significant areas, characterized by unique geological, biological, archeological, or historical interests in a natural setting, are of primary value as a means of promoting public understanding of the inspirational qualities of the world in which we live. In effect, they are outdoor museums of national, regional, or local interest. Their size varies, being dependent upon the minimum required for bringing visitors in contact with representative examples of their particular qualities. Most units under National Park Service administration, many State parks, and to a great degree, varied types of lands designated for wilderness use fall in this category. They owe their existence to public interest in the educational and inspirational qualities embodied in the dramatic nature of their setting or in their primitive, unspoiled beauty. Their values would be seriously impaired by the introduction of facilities or activities which divert public attention from the primary reasons for their existence or which promote public uses that are not in accord with their cardinal purpose. On occasion, such difficulties are far reaching and almost impossible to correct. For instance, a number of the disagreements that developed over the boundaries of some national parks were not due entirely to a lack of appreciation of the need for recreation but to a misunderstanding of the particular recreational service that national parks provide. The roots of these misunderstandings are embedded in a concept of the national park which achieved maximum development during the "See America |