THE DIVORCE PROBLEM.

A STUDY IN STATISTICS.

§ 1.

Introduction.

The "Report on Marriage and Divorce" transmitted to Congress two years ago by the Commissioner of Labor, Hon. Carroll D. Wright, might better be entitled a "Report on Divorce." Statistics of marriage are conspicuously absent. "Thoroughly incomplete and unsatisfactory" is the Commissioner's own characterization of that part of his work. Almost its only value is to reflect and reveal the wretched condition of marriage records in most of our states and territories. But the bulky volume is a mine of information on the subject of divorce in this and foreign countries. Like other mines', however, it does not carry its ore on the surface; it needs to be worked. The valuable introductory chapters of Mr. Wright have by no means given an exhaustive interpretation of its figures, while some of his conclusions, indeed, are questionable or erroneous. This will be shown at length in the course of the following argument.

The discussion of divorce maintained in the periodical press since the publication of this Report, has done little more than arouse interest and diffuse a vague conviction that something must be done, perhaps in this way occasioning a move recently made by the New York Legislature, under the inspiration of Governor Hill. A Commission of three has been appointed

in that state to promote uniformity of legislation in our various jurisdictions, and has taken the conflicting laws of marriage and divorce under consideration in the effort to harmonize their differences. A commendable object, surely; but suppose it accomplished, how much good would be done? Would the divorce movement be checked or even appreciably affected?

The publication of the Report and the appointment of the Commission are the most important of recent steps towards divorce reform; but the relation of the two, the bearing of the former on the latter, has not been recognized. In reality, Mr. Wright's volume contains an answer to the question: What can such a commission accomplish for the reform? But this answer does not lie on the surface, nor has it been read truly and clearly in the analysis of the figures. To reach it we must mine into the tables, re-arrange and re-interpret them. The direct object of this paper is to determine the influence of legislation on divorce by conclusions drawn from the raw material of figures now offered for study. The question must be attacked by slow and indirect approaches, starting with a more exact ascertainment of the nature and dimensions of the problem. Accordingly, the first part will be occupied with a determination of its general statistical phases; the second, with a study of the effects of legislation in this and foreign countries; and the last, with some conclusions upon the causes and true remedy for divorce.

PART I.

GENERAL STATISTICS OF DIVORCE.

§ 2. Comparison between the United States and Other Coun

tries.

The statistics of foreign countries presented in the excellent Appendix to the Report make such a comparison possible. The largest absolute numbers are reported from Germany and France; each country has about one-fourth as many divorces as the United States. The largest numbers relative to population are found in Switzerland and Denmark, whose divorce rate is but little better than the average for our whole country; six Swiss cantons, indeed, show as high a rate as the New England states. The smallest numbers relative to population are found in Great Britain and Ireland, the British colonies, Canada and Australia, Norway, Russia and Italy. On summing up the divorces and separations in all the countries whose records are given, it appears that more are probably granted in the United States than in all the rest of the Christian world, Protestant, Catholic and Greek; that is, more than in all Europe, outside the Balkan peninsula, all civilized Australia and America. On account of the insufficiency of data this result can be stated only as a probability. Returns are given, however, for all Christian Europe except Spain, Portugal and Greece. Outside of Europe, the Report gives statistics for Canada only, and to these I may add some figures for Victoria* and New South Wales t. In a few instances the data for 1885 are not given, and must be estimated from those of earlier years.

Victorian Year Book 1880-81.

+ Handbook of New South Wales Statistics for 1887.

The following table summarizes the divorces granted in 1885 in the various countries of the Christian world, from which either statistics or an estimate based on statistics can be obtained.

It is very doubtful whether the number of divorces and separations in Spain, Portugal, Greece, Mexico, Central America and South America, all told, would equal this excess of over 3,300. But in the absence of direct evidence the reader must form his own opinion on that point from an examination. of the table. So far as statistics are published we may safely go; and we may say that the number of divorces in the United States is considerably in excess of the number reported from all the rest of the world.

§ 3. Rate of Increase.

The divorce question, however, is fundamentally a problem, not in social statics, but in social dynamics. The number of divorces granted in a single year, either in one country or in the world, is no measure of its importance. It is a rising tide and derives its main significance not from its level at any one moment, but from the rapidity of its flow. The tide is rising steadily all the world over, but nowhere is it so high, nowhere does it rise so fast, as in these United States. Alarmists exclaim that it betokens the ruin of our whole social fabric, and free-lovers exult that the world is advancing towards the light. To the optimist it is merely a temporary set-back, an eddy in the sweep of our triumphant democracy; but to the

* Estimated on the basis of returns for previous years.

† Estimated on the basis of partial returns.