Applied Bayesian and Classical Inference: The Case of The Federalist Papers

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Springer Science & Business Media, Dec 6, 2012 - Mathematics - 303 pages
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The new version has two additions. First, at the suggestion of Stephen Stigler I we have replaced the Table of Contents by what he calls an Analytic Table of Contents. Following the title of each section or subsection is a description of the content of the section. This material helps the reader in several ways, for example: by giving a synopsis of the book, by explaining where the various data tables are and what they deal with, by telling what theory is described where. We did several distinct full studies for the Federalist papers as well as many minor side studies. Some or all may offer information both to the applied and the theoretical reader. We therefore try to give in this Contents more than the few cryptic words in a section heading to ~peed readers in finding what they want. Seconq, we have prepared an extra chapter dealing with authorship work published from. about 1969 to 1983. Although a chapter cannot compre hensively Gover a field where many books now appear, it can mention most ofthe book-length works and the main thread of authorship' studies published in English. We founq biblical authorship studies so extensive and com plicated that we thought it worthwhile to indicate some papers that would bring out the controversies that are taking place. We hope we have given the flavor of developments over the 15 years mentioned. We have also corrected a few typographical errors.
 

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Contents

The Federalist Papers As a Case Study
1
Words and Their Distributions
16
6
18
3A Independence of words from one block of text to another
23
The Main Study e
46
1C Initial odds
56
2B The interpretation of the prior distributions
63
ThreeCategory Analysis
69
9A Probability predictions
181
numerical results
185
WeightRate Analysis
200
5
209
A Robust HandCalculated Bayesian Analysis
215
6
230
Other Studies
243
where j Hamilton or Madison y is the value for the disputed paper
261

2
78
Theoretical Basis of the Main Study
92
1D Estimation
97
2D The posterior distribution
103
Abstract structure of the main study
111
The hyperparameter Aa measuring the spread of differential non
131
6D Notes on asymptotic methods a
152
7D Study of 15 word pairs
159
Summary of Results and Conclusions
263
5B Kesari
273
5D Economic history
274
Appendix
283
Index
291
229
292
198
300
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