## Applied Bayesian and Classical Inference: The Case of The Federalist PapersThe new version has two additions. First, at the suggestion of Stephen Stigler I we have replaced the Table of Contents by what he calls an Analytic Table of Contents. Following the title of each section or subsection is a description of the content of the section. This material helps the reader in several ways, for example: by giving a synopsis of the book, by explaining where the various data tables are and what they deal with, by telling what theory is described where. We did several distinct full studies for the Federalist papers as well as many minor side studies. Some or all may offer information both to the applied and the theoretical reader. We therefore try to give in this Contents more than the few cryptic words in a section heading to ~peed readers in finding what they want. Seconq, we have prepared an extra chapter dealing with authorship work published from. about 1969 to 1983. Although a chapter cannot compre hensively Gover a field where many books now appear, it can mention most ofthe book-length works and the main thread of authorship' studies published in English. We founq biblical authorship studies so extensive and com plicated that we thought it worthwhile to indicate some papers that would bring out the controversies that are taking place. We hope we have given the flavor of developments over the 15 years mentioned. We have also corrected a few typographical errors. |

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### Contents

The Federalist Papers As a Case Study | 1 |

Words and Their Distributions | 16 |

6 | 18 |

3A Independence of words from one block of text to another | 23 |

The Main Study e | 46 |

1C Initial odds | 56 |

2B The interpretation of the prior distributions | 63 |

ThreeCategory Analysis | 69 |

9A Probability predictions | 181 |

numerical results | 185 |

WeightRate Analysis | 200 |

5 | 209 |

A Robust HandCalculated Bayesian Analysis | 215 |

6 | 230 |

Other Studies | 243 |

where j Hamilton or Madison y is the value for the disputed paper | 261 |

2 | 78 |

Theoretical Basis of the Main Study | 92 |

1D Estimation | 97 |

2D The posterior distribution | 103 |

Abstract structure of the main study | 111 |

The hyperparameter Aa measuring the spread of differential non | 131 |

6D Notes on asymptotic methods a | 152 |

7D Study of 15 word pairs | 159 |

### Other editions - View all

Applied Bayesian and Classical Inference: The Case of The Federalist Papers F. Mosteller,D. L. Wallace No preview available - 2011 |

### Common terms and phrases

adjustment analysis assumptions asymptotic average Bayes Bayesian beta distribution calibrating set cent Chapter choice computation cont contextual correction correlation counts discrimination disputed papers evaluation evidence example Federalist papers final odds function words given Hamilton and Madison Hamilton markers Hamilton papers high-frequency words independent initial odds Ivor Francis known authorship likelihood ratio log likelihood logarithm low-frequency words Madison markers Madison papers main study marker words mean rate method modal approximation mode negative binomial distribution non-Poissonness normally distributed number of papers odds factor paper length paper of length papers of known parameters Poisson distribution Poisson model posterior density posterior distribution predictions prior density prior distributions probability random variable sample score screening set Section sets of underlying shown in Table sk:k standard deviations statistical stylometric theorem total log odds underlying constants unknown paper variance variation word groups word rates words Hamilton Madison writing zero