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We would like to emphasize that a number of our recommendations establish objectives toward which we should work over a period of years, rather than suggestions for immediate legislative implementation. While we believe these objectives are sound we recognize that hasty implementation could do great harm. In these cases we recommend legislative acceptance and establishment of the objective so that all may be informed but that a time schedule for implementation be designed to fit the circumstances.

As you are aware, we expected to require 2 years to complete the study under an annual budget approximately equal to the total we have expended over a period of 18 months. Curtailment of resources of time and money required we tailor the suit to the cloth. For this reason we have concentrated primarily on the troubled area of domestic surface transportation, recognizing the existence of pressing problems in other areas. The continuing research we have recommended will permit attention to these important questions,

As a suggestion not directly related to our study we would like to recommend that the studies underlying the recent Department of Commerce report on transportation be printed and made available for purchase through the Government Printing Office.

In closing, we would like to commend to your attention the fine cooperation we have had from most of the Advisory Council and the members of our ad hoc committees. The Under Secretary of Commerce, the regulatory agencies and other departments of Government, together with the Library of Congress, have furnished aid without which our limited staff would have been unable to proceed. Many valuable suggestions have been received from independent sources and from State regulatory bodies. We sincerely trust our product justifies their efforts. Respectfully submitted.

John P. DOYLE,
Staff Director, Transportation Study Group.

FOREWORD

This is a preliminary draft of a report on our national transportation policy, prepared by a special study group under the authority of Senate Resolutions 29, 151, and 244, of the 86th Congress. It is in draft form so that the Advisory Council, which represents all forms of transportation, may comment on it before it is considered by the Committee on Interstate and Foreign Commerce.

In that connection, I wish to emphasize that the conclusions and recommendations incorporated into this staff report, and which are extremely controversial, represent the views of the members of the special study group, and have neither been approved, disapproved, nor considered by the Senate Interstate and Foreign Commerce Committee.

The committee will await comment and advice from the Advisory Council and other interested parties.

(Signed) WARREN G. MAGNUSON, Chairman.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Summary--

Part 1-Introduction.-

Chapter 1. The study concepto

1. Political.--

2. Government ownership--

3. Public interest --

4. The test of economics.

5. Competition

6. Equity----

7. Common carriage-

8. Timing-

The concept of bargain transportation..

Chapter 2. The national transportation policy-

Chapter 3. National survival..

The present situation.--

1. The system.-

2. Government activities.

3. The carriers---

Recommendations...

Part II—Transportation trends---

Chapter 1. Introduction: Is the United States headed for another

major transportation crisis ?---

Chapter 2. Relative decline of common carriers --

Table I. Comparison of total intercity traffic by carrier type with

intercity traffic by federally regulated carriers..-

Chapter 3. Requirements for capital investment -

Table II. Trends in net working capital-Class I railways

(years 1940, 1946–59) --

Table III. Rate of return on net investment-

Chart I. Class I railroads, operating ratios Percentage relation-

ship of expenses to gross revenues, 1946–59.

Table IV. Trends in car supply-freight-

Table V. Trends in gross expenditures in actual and constant

dollars.

Chart II. Trends in gross capital expenditures in actual and con-

stant dollars, 1946–59_-

Chart III. Railroad capital factors, 1946–59..

Chapter 4. Decline of railroad traffic and revenue..

A. Relative decline of traffic-

Table VI. Relative position of railroads in intercity freight

traffic, 1946–59.

Chart IX. Relative position of railroads in intercity freight

traffic, 1946–59_-

Table VII. Relative position of railroads in intercity pas-

senger traffic, 1946–59...

Chart V. Relative position of railroads in intercity passen-

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ger traffic, 1946–59__

B. Absolute decline of traffic and revenue-

1. Passenger traffic-long-run trends_-

8. Freight traffic-long-run trends..

Table VIII. Trends in freight traffic ----

Chart VI. Trends in freight traffic, 1940 and

1946-59

Table IX. Trends in net income_-

Chart VII. Trends in net income, 1940 and 1946–59.

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64

65

66

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Part II—Transportation trends—Continued

Chapter 5. Causes of decline of common carrier's position---

1. Technological developments--

2. Trends in patterns of commerce.

3. Growth of nonregulated carriage--

- 4. Increasing public investment in transportation facilities.---

Table X. Annual magnitude of three major Federal promo-

tional programs for transportation, 1946–59, represent-

ing Federal highway authorizations, Federal aviation

obligations, and rivers-and-harbors appropriations--

Chart VIII. Annual magnitude of three major Federal pro-

motional programs for transportation, 1940–60, repre

senting Federal highway authorizations, Federal avia-

tion obligations, and rivers-and-harbors appropriations.-

-5. Inequitable and destructive regulation of common carriers---

6. Management

Chapter 6. Some economic results of decline of common carriers--

1. Increased social investment in transportation service--

-- 2. Growing overcapacity and underutilization of U.S. transporta-

tion plant-

Table XI. Locomotive capacity, 1926–58_

Table XII. Total freightcar capacity, 1926–58_

Table XIII. Trunk and local service air passenger capac-

ity and utilization ----

Table XIV. Revenue and available ton-miles U.S. domes-

tic intercity air carriers.--

3. Declining net income----

4. Undermaintenance and reduced service capacity-

5. Reduction of service----

6. Higher financing costs.--

Table XV. Operating ratios of class I motor carriers,

1946–59_-

Table XVI. Railroad operating expenses, 1946–59--

Chart IX. Railroad operating expenses, class I and II,

1946–59__

Table XVII. Age of freight carrying cars used in inter-

change service, 1946–59, owned or leased by class I rail-

roads.

Table XVIII. Trends in ratio of debt capital to total

capital, 1946–59.--

7. Higher transportation costs---

8. The growing competitive struggle.

Chapter 7. Trends projected to 1975_-

Chart X. Freight traffic of regulated and unregulated intercity car-

riers projected to 1975 compared to railroad traffic..

Exhibit A. ICC-regulated versus non-ICC intercity freight---

Chart XI. Anticipated annual expenditures for public investment

in transportation facilities, 1961–75---

Chart XII. Total Government expenditures for transportation,

railroad capital expenditures, and gross national product, 1946-

59 projected to 1975---

Chart XIII. Total private investment in transportation, 1946–58

cumulative)

Chart XIV. Total investment in transportation facilities, 1946–58

projected to 1975, by modes (cumulative)-

Chart XV. Comparison of trends in social investments and ton-

miles, 1946–58 projected to 1975---

Conclusions----

[graphic]
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