CHAPTER 4. DECLINE OF RAILROAD TRAFFIC AND REVENUE

The decline of the relative importance of railroad transportation is the most significant development in domestic transportation that has occurred in the last 30 years. Except for a dramatic revival during the gas rationing period of World War II, the number of passengers carried by the railroads has declined since 1926. However, the trend in ton-miles of freight, except for the period of the great depression of the thirties, was upward until 1956 when an absolute decline set in.

A. RELATIVE DECLINE OF TRAFFIC

In passenger traffic of all common carriers, the railroads' share declined between 1926 and 1959 from 83.84 to 32.27 percent. By 1957 the passenger-miles by air exceeded those by rail and, in 1959, the bus and rail passenger-miles were approximately equal.

The private automobile has long since usurped the bulk of passengermiles and by 1955 had reached 88 percent. The three categories of for-hire carriers may be said to carry about one-third each of the remaining 12 percent. Of these, air carriage alone is gaining. Bus travel is fairly stable although since 1956 declining at a slightly slower rate than rail traffic. The distribution of passenger-miles among the three for-hire passenger carriers is shown in chart V, page 62. It shows that air passenger travel passed the bus traffic in 1956, and the rail traffic during the year 1957, and that it continues to rise as rail and bus travel continue to decline. The trend of the rail and bus traffic indicates that the rail traffic while still above bus traffic likely will, in 2 or 3 years, fall below it, unless new measures are employed to revive rail passenger business.

The percentage of total intercity freight traffic carried by the railroads has declined from 76.5 percent in 1926 and 66.6 percent in 1946 to 46 percent in 1959 whereas the shares of all other modes have tended to increase substantially. Despite this percentage decrease it is im

portant to note that the rails still carry more than twice the ton-miles of any competing mode.

The trend in distribution of freight traffic in the postwar period is shown in table VI and chart IV. The trend in passenger traffic distribution for the same period is shown in table VII and chart V.

It is clear from the foregoing that the era of the railroad as a dominant monopolistic industry in transportation has long since ended, and that most of the growth of passenger traffic has gone to the private automobile and of freight traffic to other surface carriers. But loss of relative position alone does not indicate crisis in the railroad industry.

TABLE VI.-Relative position of railroads in intercity freight traffic, 1946–59

1 Includes electric railways, express, and mail.

Coverage was expanded in 1948, 1951, 1953, and 1954 to include the ton-miles on waterways not previously covered. Includes express, mail, and excess baggage.

Source: Years 1946-54, ICC, Intercity Ton-Miles 1939-54, statement No. 568, Feb. 1956; years 1955-58, ICC, annual reports; 1959 Moody's Transportation Manual, 1960, p. all.

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TABLE VII.-Relative position of railroads in intercity passenger traffic 1946-59

Source: ICC, annual reports '(years 1946-48, 1957-58); Intercity Passenger Miles 1949-56, statement No. 280, January 1958, p. 2; National Association of Motor Bus Operators, Bus Facts, 28th edition, p. 4; year 1959, Moody's Transportation Manual 1960, p. a28.