are (1) The Prairie provinces of Canada, (2) the River Plate region and adjacent areas of Argentine and Uruguay, (3) Russia (4) the plateaus and northwestern part of India, and (5) southeastern Australia, but, it goes on, "two other large areas-the North China plain and Siberia-produce, in general, the same products as these regions. The North China plain is intensively cultivated and densely populated. Siberia is the only large undeveloped agricultural expanse in temperate regions. Because of its vast size and distance from food importing peoples, Siberia is the last to be exploited, and its products will not enter world markets in large quantities until economic pressure is greater than today."

"Five countries send considerable quantities of their agricultural products to world markets in competition with those from the United States," the Trade Information Bulletin goes on. "Canada is the strongest competitor for wheat and can extend her acreage. Dairy products, bacon and ham will increase as to quantity exported. The population of Canada will remain small in proportion to area, so the surplus of food for export will continue large. Russia will doubtless return to her position as an exporter of wheat. Argentine can increase the production of wheat, beef, corn, pork and cotton, and the population will tend to be relatively small, consequently there will be a considerable surplus for export. At present Argentine is the strongest factor in world markets for corn, beef and beef products. British India will export some of its wheat and cotton but the large and dense population will utilize most of the crops. Australia will continue to have a proportionately large surplus of wheat, beef, and dairy products, because its population will not be large."

Some of our farm products are produced in approximately the quantities that are absorbed in our domestic market. These are corn, oats, barley, potatoes and rye, according to Figure 27. This shows the percentage

of the world's principal food crops produced and consumed in the United States including Hawaii and Porto Rico, averages for 1910-1914. The United States is practically independent of the remainder of the world in its food supply except for coffee, tea, sugar, cocoa, bananas and olive oil, and the principal source of these food products, except tea and olive oil, is found in the Western Hemisphere. Of all the cereals except rice, the United States produces more than it consumes.

The five year average, 1910-1914, shows a wheat production surplus for the United States over consumption according to Figure 28, but there is a

wheat surplus and a wheat deficiency in many of the states of the United States. Estimates are that about 60 per cent of the wheat crop is ordinarily shipped out of the county where grown. This is the commercial crop. Much of the farm surplus in the United States is consumed either by farm

ers who do not produce enough for their own needs or by people who are not engaged in agriculture. From 1910-1914, 19 states each had a surplus over its own requirements for food, feed and seed. The other 30 states whose wheat production was below consumption were supplied by this surplus. This surplus also supplied the export. The great surplus producing states are Kansas, North Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota and Washing

ton.

Just how it is that we could export 163,609,213 bushels of corn in 1922 and consume only slightly less than we produced is shown by Table F, which gives the percentages of our domestic production of cotton, wheat and

Table F.-Percent of domestic product exported.

corn that has been exported over a period of 12 fiscal years, 1910-1922. The percentage of our total crop of corn exported has been very slight in comparison to the high percentage for cotton and wheat. Cotton ran as high as 77 per cent in 1921, while the percentage of wheat exported was 43.95 for the same year. In this year only .60 per cent of our corn crop was exported. The highest percentage of corn exported during the years 1910-1914 was 2.25 per cent, a very small figure. Thus we see how true it is that corn is produced in approximately the quantity that is absorbed in our domestic market.

The change in value of our principal export crops over a 10 year period is shown by Table G. This shows that although $25,427,993 was paid for 36,802,374 bushels of corn exported in 1910, $23,827,541 was paid for 14,467,926 bushels in 1920, a considerable rise in price. Wheat too almost trebled in price over this period, while the price of cotton was also about trebled although the quantity exported increased only slightly.

The destination of our total exports on a percentage basis over a period of 10 years, from 1912 to 1922, is shown in Table H. Europe predominated in the receipt of exports during this period, while North Amer. ica consistently ran second. Asia, South America, Oceania and Africa were

Table G.-Exports of principal crops from the United States during the fiscal years ending June 30, 1920 and 1910.

The United States, then, is the leading producer and surplus source of agricultural products. The American farmer, far from being criticised, should be commended for his high production per man.

Summing up: The chief agricultural products of the United States included in the export trade are cotton, meats and grains. Argentine is the largest competitor in the markets of the world with such products as beef and corn. Among the grains, wheat is most important, and here Canada is our chief competitor. Our largest export market for the products under consideration is Europe, taken as a whole, which absorbs 80 per cent. The United Kingdom still remains our chief market for our agricultural products, taking in value 40 per cent of the total. Germany is second, normally absorbing about 20 per cent of such exports.

As to the future, it is clear that Canada, our strongest competitor in the world's wheat market, can greatly increase her acreage and production, and because of her small population will continue to be a factor of growing importance. Russia will in time undoubtedly regain her important position in the exportation of wheat. British India will probably continue to export a portion of its wheat, but its dense population will take a very large part of what it can produce. Argentine might very largely increase its production of wheat, corn, beef and pork, and the population there is not likely to increase sufficiently rapidly to absorb this increase in production. Foreign trade in bacon, hams and dairy products will undoubtedly be increased to a considerable extent.

The condition of our agriculture would seem to justify a thorough study of the international situation as it bears upon the outlet for the products of our farms. The American farmer is not a unit in himself. His prosperity depends upon the prosperity of the rest of the world; his goods go out as exports to all the world, competing with the products of other countries for favorable prices. The farmer, as well as every other producer of goods for all of mankind, should understand that he is a link in a chain that goes around the world and he should be able to put forth his best efforts to meet the needs, not only of the United States, but of the world. This is why we should interest ourselves in world agriculture. I thank you.

PRESIDENT ALLEN: I want to take this moment to announce the committees. We have on the Credentials Committee, Mr. E. W. Burroughs of Edwardsville, Chairman, Mr. D. M. Marlin of Norris City and Mr. George F. Tullock of Rockford. They will have a table in the lobby of this

building and all of the delegates should present themselves to this committee as early as possible, because the delegate meeting will be this afternoon after the sessions, at five o'clock.

On the Resolutions Committee we have, Mr. A. N. Abbott of Morrison, Chairman; A. C. Everingham of Hudsonville, A. C. Page of Chicago, L. C. Brown of LaGrange and J. C. B. Heaton of New Burnside. Those who have resolutions which they would like to have brought before the convention will please present them to this committee for their consideration.

Preliminary to the introduction of our other Dean of Agriculture, I would like to state that the custom of the Farmers' Institute has been for many years to have the opening session devoted to soil fertility. It was the time and the occasion on which for many years Dr. Hopkins presented his ideas and theories on soil fertility to the people of this state. It was an annual event. At this meeting we have Dr. Davenport who will take up the same subject.

You know we have at the University what is known as the "Davenport Plots". I mention this to emphasize my understanding of Dr. Davenport's interest in soil fertility. He made a study of soil fertility years and years ago, and this accounts largely for his cooperation with Dr. Hopkins and his sympathy in the work of Dr. Hopkins. The two men worked together for many years.

It gives me great pleasure to introduce to you Dr. Eugene Davenport, who is now of Michigan.

[Applause.]

SOIL FERTILITY IN HARD TIMES.

DR. EUGENE DAVENPORT, Dean Emeritus, University of Illinois.

I do not suppose it will take any discussion to convince an audience of farmers at this time that by "hard times" we mean present times.

I read by the papers that farming is now very prosperous, that farmers are through with all of their troubles and there is to be nothing ahead but prosperity which has been lurking around the corner for a considerable

Dr. E. Davenport.

number of years. But nevertheless up in the region where I live, in Michigan, and the same is true in Illinois, we haven't many farmers who feel that the times are prosperous.

We have had many periods of depression in the past and we shall have more in the future. It does not take one with a very long memory to recall what happened after the Crimean war in 1857, and some of us can remember 1873 very well, the period after that, and 1893, 1907. These periods of depression come to all businesses, agriculture included. I suppose that anybody who is at all a prophet would have no difficulty in prophesying in advance that when a war begins there will be hard times for farming immediately afterwards.

I remember a conversation that took place in Washington at the very outbreak of the European war. A bunch of people were sitting in the Cosmos Club and one of them remarked, "We will now have good times." Dr. Carver, of Harvard, an economist of international reputation, was one of the number. He said, "We will not have good times. A general European war, whether they will draw us into it or not, will so disturb the financial affairs of the world that we will help pay for it in lowered prices. The conditions are different than they used to be. In the old days when a man decided to go to war he just picked up a butcher knife or pitch fork and went at it. If he got killed