many Federal and State agencies, academic groups, and a variety of industry and consultant groups. It is the most complete, publicly available coal-quality data base in the world, and more data are being added daily to provide detailed regional and basinal coalquality assessments.

COAL MINERALOGY

The mineralogy of U.S. coal is being studied to identify and quantify the minerals and the mode of occurrence of minor and trace elements in the coal. These investigations provide data useful in the design of coal-cleaning and coalpreparation facilities and contribute to understanding and predicting the behavior of various minerals in combustion chambers.

COAL PETROLOGY

Coal petrology studies focus on the identity, concentration, and distribution of inorganic and organic matter. Their physical characteristics and the degree of coalification of the organic matter (rank) determine the properties, reactivity, and yield of coal. Changes in coal rank, depth of burial, and depositional environment currently are being studied, and techniques are being developed to describe systematically,

interpret, and predict the occurrence and distribution of high-quality coal.

PREDICTIVE COAL-QUALITY MODELS

An important objective of national coal-quality studies is the integration of basinwide geologic, stratigraphic, and sedimentologic data with coal geochemistry, mineralogy, and petrology data to develop and test predictive models. These models, based in part on investigations of modern peat deposits, will lead to a better understanding of the origin of high-quality coal and of the coalification processes.

Current Geological Survey research on coal quality is focused on the Appalachian region of the Eastern United States and on the Powder River, San Juan, Big Horn, Green River, south central Utah, and eastern Unita regions of the Western United States. These studies require the integration of geochemical, sedimentologic, tectonic, and paleoecologic data with geologic framework data on regional and local scales. Through the activities described above, the coal resources best suited to various end uses will be identified and quantified, and predictive models will be made available to support resource information, regulation, and land policy decisions.

Figure 1. Ultimate resources of crude oil.

PROGRAM GOALS

The rhetoric of "energy independence" which emerged from the shocks of the 1973 oil embargo gradually has been replaced by an understanding of the complex web of interdependence among the world's nations with respect to petroleum and other energy resources. Consequently, reliable information from throughout the world about reserves and the probable location and extent of undiscovered oil, gas, coal, and uranium are indispensable components in planning for the Nation's energy security. Such understanding allows us to distinguish the anomalous and temporary fluctuations in world oil supply and demand from historically and geologically derived trends.

A geological understanding of the characteristics of petroleum occurrence also offers a base for planning national strategies for transition to other forms of energy. Development of alternate energy sources requires long lead times which cannot be supported by marketdetermined forces that limit the focus of attention to immediate economic viability.

Because of the crucial role of world energy-resource assessments in decisionmaking about long-term national

energy strategies and the always controversial nature of such assessments, the U.S. Geological Survey program concentrates on developing a reliable data base that will enable multidirectional analyses of the assessments as exploration proceeds.

MAJOR ACHIEVEMENTS

The major achievement of the World Energy Resources Program this fiscal year has been the completion of a report on the distribution and quantitative assessment of world crude oil reserves and resources, which was presented at the 11th World Petroleum Congress in London. Important insights from this comprehensive report include the following:

Estimates of undiscovered resources,

although large, are, nonetheless, sharply reduced relative to some earlier assessments because no new, major prospective exploration areas have been found (fig. 1).

• The geographic distribution of world oil is and will remain narrow and highly concentrated with respect to producing capacity. The Middle East will become ever more dominant in world energy supply (fig. 2).

• World production of crude oil over the past decade has exceeded discoveries

MODE

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80

60

40

20

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300

600

900

1200

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109

PRODUCED

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BARRELS

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The margin of excess producing capacity outside the Persian Gulf (about 3 million-4 million barrels of oil day) is minimal and could disappear with any changes in consumption (currently about 55 million barrels per day) derived from economic recovery or sudden disruption of supply (7 million-8 million barrels of oil per day are shipped through the Straits of Hormuz). Preliminary investigations on the distribution and availability of natural gas indicate that the picture for world gas resources is strikingly similar to that for world oil resources in terms of British thermal unit equivalent quantities and their distribution. An inescapable conclusion is that the world remains vulnerable to a renewed and sudden energy crisis in terms of availability and deliverability.

FUTURE INVESTIGATIONS

The World Energy Resources Program will be suspended in fiscal year 1985. However, the Geological Survey will retain the capability to provide expert advice regarding foreign resources that potentially have a bearing on the U.S. domestic resource base. Specific

assessment work related to the mission responsibilities of other Federal

agencies will be performed on a reimbursable basis.

CONCLUSION

In decades past, stable price and supply of petroleum limited our concern to the most obvious geological questions-Where were the fields likely to be found? and How good were they? Today, unpredictable prices, political upheavals in the world's major oilproducing region, changing economic supply-and-demand relations and doubts about the long-term availability of natural resources require that our analyses encompass a more complex and varied range of questions. The Geological Survey attempts to meet the needs of changing times by broadening our base of knowledge about the distribution and potential future availability of energy minerals throughout the world. Because so much of a nation's economic and social welfare is related to a dependable and realistically priced energy supply, the answers to these questions hold the key to a secure and stable future.

During January and February 1984 (figs. 1, 2), marine geologists aboard the Research Vessel Samuel P. Lee conducted two surveys along the Antarctic continental margin south of Australia and New Zealand. The purpose of the

surveys was to define the geologic structure and the sedimentary basins of the region. The surveys included geophysical profiling and seafloor sampling to determine the ages and physical and geochemical properties of the rocks. The Antarctic portion of "Operation Deep Sweep" (a year-long, pole-to-pole series of surveys to investigate seabed oil and gas and mineral deposits) was conducted as part of the U.S. Antarctic Research Program in cooperation with the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Coast Guard, and the U.S. Navy. In addition to U.S. Geological Survey personnel, scientists from U.S. universities and from Australia and New Zealand contributed to the success of the voyage.

A newly published Geological Survey circular describes the types of data collected and provides a brief discussion of preliminary results based on shipboard analyses of seismic and other geophysical data. The report, Marine Geological and Geophysical Investigations of the Antarctic Continental Margin, 1984, and scientific data collected on the Antarctic voyage will be made available for exchange under the terms of the Antarctic Treaty.