Strategic Risk: A State-Defined Approach

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Springer Science & Business Media, Dec 6, 2012 - Business & Economics - 218 pages
Strategic Risk examines a fundamental issue in the field of strategic management and organizations: how to study changes in the competitive outcomes of firms. Collins and Ruefli develop the concept of ordinal risk and extend this concept and its associated measures to the more general framework of state-defined systems. The book makes the state-defined risk methodology more accessible to strategic management researchers, and to social scientists in general. The need for quantitative frameworks with which to analyze the dynamics of strategic management has been apparent for some time. The state-defined risk methodology has the advantage of being based on a common usage definition of risk, and is also based on a mathematically well-behaved function. It permits investigation of the chance of gain while yielding a measure of environmental uncertainty. Finally, the development is general and permits applications employing a variety of performance dimensions over a range of entities in a diversity of contexts. The authors demonstrate the practicability and reliability of this approach by applying the model to mutual funds, large mining and manufacturing firms, and public firms on an industry by industry basis.
 

Contents

LIST OF FIGURES
4
A RESEARCH PERSPECTIVE ON STRATEGIC RISK
6
LIST OF TABLES
8
ORDINAL ANALYSIS
12
APPENDIX A
18
REVIEW AND ANALYSIS OF PRIOR RISKRELATED STRATEGY
34
TRADITIONAL ANALYSIS OF THE EXAMPLE DATA
40
1 ROA MEANS AND VARIANCES FROM TABLE 1 3
41
9 ADJUSTED STATEDEFINED RISK
95
WEIGHT SYSTEMS
97
1 ALL AREAS OF THE TRANSITION MATRIX
102
1 ADJUSTMENT PERCENTAGE FOR RELATIVE PROSPECT
103
6 COMPUTED STATEDEFINED STATISTICS
109
CONCLUSION
110
2 ADJUSTED STATEDEFINED STATISTICS
117
1 ROLLING WINDOW ANALYSIS
123

1 AVERAGE INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE
42
A CONCEPT OF STATEDEFINED RISK
46
1 ORDINAL INDUSTRY ROA DATA
51
GENERAL DEFINITION OF STRATEGIC RISK
54
A MEASURE OF STATEDEFINED RISK
61
1 TRANSITION EVENTS INDIVIDUAL ENTITY PA
64
DEVELOPMENT OF A GENERAL ENTROPIC MEASURE OF SYSTEM
67
6 CONDITIONAL TRANSITION PROBABILITIES
71
1 WEIGHTS REPRESENTING THE IMPORTANCE OF DIFFERENT Classes
81
A GENERALIZED MEASURE OF STATEDEFINED RISK
84
1 RISK AREA OF THE TRANSITION MATRIX
85
7 WEIGHTED ENTROPIES
89
2 RISK BIAS WHEN System is ObsERVED OVER 5 10 15 20 AND 25
94
1 KENDALL TAU CORRELATIONS ENDING PERIOD RANK BY STRATEGIC
129
STATEDEFINED RISK AND STATEDEFINED PROSPECT OF
130
10 STATEDEFINED UNCERTAINTY OF FORTUNE 500 FIRMS
134
RECENT FINDINGS AND A CONJECTURE
142
1 MARKET EFFECT ON RISKRETURN RELATIONSHIPS
144
1 RISKRETURN ASSOCIATIONS 650 MUTUAL FUNDS
154
4 ORDINAL RISKRETURN PLOT FOR THE TOP 650 MUTUAL FUNDS PERIOD
155
IMPLICATIONS
161
1 TWO DISTRIBUTIONS WITH DIFFERENT MEANS AND VARIANCES
170
2 WEIGHTED ENTROPY SURFACES ALL FORTUNE 500 FIRMS
174
LIMITATIONS AND IMPLICATIONS
180
INDEX 211
210
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