Rationality for Mortals: How People Cope with UncertaintyGerd Gigerenzer's influential work examines the rationality of individuals not from the perspective of logic or probability, but from the point of view of adaptation to the real world of human behavior and interaction with the environment. Seen from this perspective, human behavior is more rational than it might otherwise appear. This work is extremely influential and has spawned an entire research program. This volume collects recent articles, looking at how people use "fast and frugal heuristics" to calculate probability and risk and make decisions. It includes the revised articles and newly written introduction that were first published in the hardcover edition. Its appeal is to a mixture of cognitive psychologists, philosophers, economists, and others who study decision making."Gerd Gigerenzer has created new, pathbreaking ways of thinking about human rationality. His ideas build on one another and are best seen as part of a coherent whole that is when the nature of his arguments emerges most clearly."-- Leda Cosmides, University of California Santa Barbara |
Contents
1 Bounded and Rational | 3 |
2 Fast and Frugal Heuristics | 20 |
3 Rules of Thumb in Animals and Humans | 46 |
4 I Think Therefore I Err | 65 |
5 Striking a Blow for Sanity in Theories of Rationality | 80 |
6 Out of the Frying Pan into the Fire | 92 |
7 Whats in a Sample? A Manual for Building Cognitive Theories | 99 |
8 A 30 Percent Chance of Rain Tomorrow | 117 |
10 The Evolution of Statistical Thinking | 136 |
11 Mindless Statistics | 152 |
12 Children Can Solve Bayesian Problems | 172 |
Innumeracy Defeated | 192 |
203 | |
231 | |
239 | |
9 Understanding Risks in Health Care | 127 |
Other editions - View all
Common terms and phrases
actually adaptive adults alternative animals answer asked assumed ball Bayesian behavior bounded calculated cancer chance chapter cognitive conditional confusion Consider consistent correct cues decision defined effect environment errors evidence example expected experiment experimental figure Fisher forecasts Gigerenzer given heuristic human hypothesis illusions increase individual inferences instance interpretation judgment laws learning logic mean measure memory method mind models natural natural frequencies norms null hypothesis objects observed optimization participants patients percent performance person players population positive possible predict presented probability problem psychology question rain random rationality reasoning recognition reference relative reported representations response result risk ritual rule sampling satisficing sciences showed significance simple social solve specified statements statistical stopping strategy structure take-the-best task theory thinking tion understand validity whereas