returns to individual traders of futures of: aggregate results

1977 to December aggregate big winners cash market cattle markets CFTC commercial and non-commercial commercial traders earn daily data day trading different from zero earn positive returns earning returns feeder cattle forecasting skills futures contracts futures markets Hartzmark 1984 hedge positions Houthakker 1957 Houthakker and Rockwell individual KBT wheat large commercial traders large speculators large traders live cattle long positions losers market power maturity months MGE wheat million month-end commitments month-end data month-end reports nine markets normal backwardation number of traders observed Overall paper partial equilibrium period pork bellies profit calculations profits earned pure hedgers returns to traders risk aversion risk premium implicit Rockwell found Rockwell methods significantly different skewness coefficient small traders speculative and hedge speculative positions spot price stochastic process systematic risk T-Bill markets T-Bond market Table total number trader profits TRADER TYPE TRADERS COMMERCIAL NON-COMMERCIAL traders perform traders who hold traders who reported transactions WHEAT ALL TRADERS