The Politics of Authoritarian RuleWhat drives politics in dictatorships? Milan W. Svolik argues that all authoritarian regimes must resolve two fundamental conflicts. First, dictators face threats from the masses over which they rule - this is the problem of authoritarian control. A second, separate challenge arises from the elites with whom dictators rule - this is the problem of authoritarian power-sharing. Crucially, whether and how dictators resolve these two problems is shaped by the dismal environment in which authoritarian politics takes place: in a dictatorship, no independent authority has the power to enforce agreements among key actors and violence is the ultimate arbiter of conflict. Using the tools of game theory, Svolik explains why some dictators, such as Saddam Hussein, establish personal autocracy and stay in power for decades; why leadership changes elsewhere are regular and institutionalized, as in contemporary China; why some dictatorships are ruled by soldiers, as Uganda was under Idi Amin; why many authoritarian regimes, such as PRI-era Mexico, maintain regime-sanctioned political parties; and why a country's authoritarian past casts a long shadow over its prospects for democracy, as the unfolding events of the Arab Spring reveal. When assessing his arguments, Svolik complements these and other historical case studies with the statistical analysis of comprehensive, original data on institutions, leaders, and ruling coalitions across all dictatorships from 1946 to 2008. |
Contents
The Anatomy of Dictatorship | 1 |
The World of Authoritarian Politics | 19 |
And Then There Was One Authoritarian PowerSharing and | 53 |
When and Why Institutions Contribute to Authoritarian | 85 |
Moral Hazard in Authoritarian Repression and the Origins | 123 |
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al-Asad allies analysis authoritarian leaders authoritarian parties authoritarian politics authoritarian power-sharing authoritarian regimes authoritarian ruling coalitions authority b₁ Baath Party balance of power Bashar al-Asad benefits brinkmanship challenger Chap chapter conceptual Continuance Democracy coup d'état covariates credibility Democracy Democracy democratic Deng Xiaoping dictator reneges distribution economic inequality effect elections elites empirical equilibrium established autocracy exits from office expected payoff formal institutions Geddes Hafez al-Asad incentives Independence Continuance Independence Democracy institutionalized Jiang Zemin Khlevniuk Khrushchev leadership change legislative seats Magaloni mass threat military dictatorships military intervention military involvement mixed strategies moral hazard multiple parties party members party service percent personalist Politburo political control political parties potential President probability problem of authoritarian Przeworski rebel rebellion succeeds regime parties regime-sanctioned regime's restrictions on political retirement Saddam Hussein share power Soviet Stalin successful survival of authoritarian tenure term limits transitions uprisings