Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making

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"The authors are highly respected as leading figures in the field of judgment and decision making. There are many existing books on topics related to judgment and decision making, but this book makes a unique contribution to this field because of its systematic and scholarly approach, and its breadth of coverage."
—Robert Goldstone, Indiana University

"Reid Hastie and Robyn Dawes are two of the most eminent researchers in the field. I know these authors to be excellent writers and I have no doubt that their writing style will be suitable for my students."
—William Goldstein, University of Chicago

In the new edition of this award-winning text, renowned authors Reid Hastie and Robyn Dawes compare and contrast the basic principles of rationality with actual behavior in making decisions. This book explores theories and research findings from the field of judgment and decision making in a non-technical manner, using anecdotes as a teaching device. Intended as an introductory textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate students, the material not only is of scholarly interest but is practical as well.

New to This Edition

  • Chapter introductions, conclusions, and cross-references between chapters make the text more student friendly
  • An abundance of examples from areas such as finance, medicine, law, and engineering anchor concepts to the real world
  • Increased consideration of descriptive, psychological models of decision making augment the original emphasis on normative, rational, "Expected Utility Theory" models, bring the book up to date
  • Balance among the three major approaches to judgment and decision making: cognitive psychological analyses of mental processes and heuristics, descriptive algebraic models of judgment and decision processes, and rational models of decision making
 

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Contents

Chapter 1 Thinking and Deciding
Chapter 2 What Is Decision Making?
Chapter 3 A General Framework for Judgment
Anchoring and Adjustment
Chapter 5 Judging Heuristically
Chapter 6 ExplanationBased Judgments
Chapter 7 Chance and Cause
Chapter 8 Thinking Rationally About Uncertainty
Chapter 10 From Preferences to Choices
Chapter 11 A Rational Decision Theory
Chapter 12 A Descriptive Decision Theory
New Directions in Research on Judgment and Decision Making
Chapter 14 In Praise of Uncertainty
Basic Principles of Probability Theory
Index
About the Authors

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