Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country |
Contents
| xv | |
| 1 | |
| 5 | |
Key Issues Carbon Fertilization Irrigation and Trade Carbon Fertilization | 21 |
The Irrigation Question | 24 |
Figure 31b Irrigation and precipitation for US states | 26 |
Trade as Moderator? | 30 |
CountryLevel Climate Projections | 33 |
Figure 61 Income elasticity of demand for food tobacco and beverages and purchasing power parity PPP income per capita | 86 |
Table 61 Production of four major crops by major producers and world 200104 annual average million metric tons | 88 |
Table 62 Average annual increase in yields per hectare percent | 90 |
Table 63 Meat consumption per capita kilograms per person per year | 91 |
Conclusion | 93 |
Table 71 Summary estimates for impact of global warming on world agricultural output potential by the 2080s percent | 94 |
APPENDICES | 97 |
Standardizing Global Grids of Climate Change Data | 99 |
Present Day and for 207099 | 35 |
Average temperature and precipitation C and mm per day annual averages | 36 |
Table 43 Global landbased climate averages and changes 196190 to 207099 | 40 |
CountryLevel Agricultural Impact Estimates MendelsohnSchlesinger Agricultural Response Functions | 41 |
Figure 51 Isoproduction curves for the MendelsohnSchlesinger reduced form function | 42 |
MendelsohnSchlesinger Estimates for the United States | 44 |
Ricardian Estimates for Developing Countries and Canada | 45 |
Table 52 Impact of global warming by the 2080s on Indian agricultural productivity using the MendelsohnDinarSanghi model | 48 |
Table 53 Impact of climate change by the 2080s on African agriculture World Bank Ricardian models without carbon fertilization | 49 |
Table 54 Weighted average impact of global warming by the 2080s on the african agriculture | 52 |
Table 55 Impact of global warming by the 2080s on agricultural | 55 |
Sensitivity to Climate Models | 57 |
Table 56 Dispersion of MendelsohnSchlesinger Richardian Model Estimates across climate models | 58 |
Rosenzweig et al Crop Model Results | 59 |
Synthesis of Preferred Estimates | 61 |
Table 57 RosenzweigIglesias Agricultural impact estimates for the 2080s four major grains and oilseeds percent change in yield | 62 |
Table 58 Preferred esitmates of baseline global warming by the 2080s on the world agriculture | 65 |
Figure 52 Impact on agricultural productivity without carbon fertilization percent | 72 |
Figure 53 Impact on agricultural productivity with carbon fertilization percent | 73 |
Figure 54 Percent change in agricultural capacity by the 2080s in 47 countries and regions without carbon fertilization | 74 |
Table 59 Change in agricultural capacity by regional aggregates percent | 75 |
Comparison to Estimates in the ModelSource Studies | 78 |
Dynamic Considerations | 85 |
Mapping Grid Cells to Countries | 103 |
Calculating the Geographical Area of the Grid Cell | 107 |
Definitions of Countries Regions and Subzones | 109 |
Table D1 Subzones of largest countries | 110 |
Estimating Farm Area and Agricultural Output by Country Region and Subzone | 113 |
Table E1 Estimated land area farm area and agricultural output by country region and subzone | 117 |
CountryLevel Results with the MendelsohnSchlesinger Functions | 121 |
MendelsohnSchlesinger reduced form model | 123 |
MendelsohnSchlesinger crosssection Ricardian model | 128 |
Ricardian Models for India Africa and Latin America | 135 |
Table G2 Ricardian models for Africa | 137 |
Table G3 Ricardian functions for Argentina Brazil Chile and Ecuador | 138 |
Appendix H Monthly Climate Data 196190 and 207099 | 139 |
Table H1 Average temperature JanuaryJune | 140 |
Table H2 Average temperature JulyDecember | 145 |
Table H3 Average precipitation JanuaryJune | 150 |
Table H4 Average precipitation JulyDecember | 155 |
Appendix I Dispersion of Climate Projections Across General Circulation Models | 161 |
Table 11 Coefficient of variation for future climate projections of six models | 163 |
References | 167 |
Glossary | 173 |
Index | 177 |
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Common terms and phrases
Africa aggregate agricultural impact agricultural output applied Argentina Asia billion Brazil Canada carbon fertilization cell Central China climate change climate models Cline crop model estimates developing countries Economic Egypt equation farm area Fred Bergsten future climate G cell Gary Clyde Hufbauer GCMs global warming grid hectare impact estimates Impact of climate impact of global increase India IPCC irrigation ISBN Jeffrey John Williamson Korea land area land rental equivalent Latin America latitude losses Marcus Noland mate median Mendelsohn and Schlesinger Mendelsohn-Schlesinger MMSA negative North Korea North Urals Siberia Northeast Northwest output per hectare P1 PO P1 percent change Peterson Institute Policy preferred estimates present study reduced form regions Report revenue per hectare Ricardian estimates Ricardian model Rosenzweig Rosenzweig-Iglesias Russia scenario Schlesinger 1999 Schott Siberia South Southeast Siberia Stern Review subzones table continues table F.2 temperature and precipitation Trade United weighting world agriculture World Bank yields
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