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adjusted AFDC analysis Ann Arbor annual earnings assets average black children black women bonus value coefficient cross-sectional depreciation earnings change economic status effects efficacy change elderly eligible households estimated experience factors family income female Five Thousand American food stamp program GINI coefficient hourly earnings household heads human capital Income Dynamics income/needs increase individual ineligible Institute for Social James N labor force labor market labor supply less longitudinal married married couples measures Mincer Morgan mother-only households mothers natural gas natural logarithm nonblack children number of children occupation Panel Study parents part-time participation rate patterns percent period Polachek poverty PSID regression relative reported sample selection bias sex segregation significant Social Research Study of Income Supplemental Security Income Table transfers trend two-parent unemployment University of Wisconsin-Madison variables wage change wage growth welfare white women