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Contents
Common terms and phrases30 percent adaptive toolbox adults answer as-if ball base rate Bayes’s rule Bayesian reasoning Bayesian responses behavior bounded rationality breast cancer calculated cognitive illusions conditional probabilities conjunction fallacy cues decision ecological rationality environment errors example experimental fast and frugal figure Fisher gaze heuristic Gigerenzer graders hindsight bias Hoffrage human hypothesis testing inferences innumeracy instance interpretation intuitive Jerzy Neyman judgment Kahneman learning level of significance logic mathematical mean memory mind natural frequencies Neyman Neyman-Pearson null hypothesis null hypothesis testing null ritual objects optimization models optimization under constraints overfitting p-value participants patients people’s percent chance players predict prob probabilities of rain problem psychology question random sampling recognition heuristic red nose reference class representations result rules of thumb sequential sampling simple heuristics single-event probabilities social solve statistical thinking STATISTICIAN stopping rule strategy structure superego take-the-best take-the-best heuristic theory tion Tversky validity variables Bibliographic information
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